The Shanghai Composite index could test support between 3,260 and 3,290. » Read More
U.S. oil prices have widened their trading range. » Read More
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 has crossed a key technical resistance level and is headed higher. » Read More
The Nikkei 225 appears to be responding to economic reforms launched by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, technical analyst Daryl Guppy says. » Read More
The defining feature of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the extended support/resistance trend line, which is a projection of the head and shoulder pattern that developed in the middle of 2011. This is the support feature, which will help define the nature of the continued rise in the Dow.
The NYMEX weekly oil chart has developed a mid-trend inverted head and shoulder continuation pattern. This suggests that the uptrend of the past few weeks has a high probability of continuing. The head and shoulder pattern is also used to calculate price targets using a measured move.
Fine Cotton was the name of an unimpressive racehorse in Australia. The poorly performing horse was replaced with a much superior look-alike substitute, which won a major race at long odds. The same switching tactics have been seen with the Indian government position on cotton export sales and the results are very similar. It has little impact on the fundamentals of the market.
The Apple chart shows an unsustainable rally. This doesn’t mean that traders cannot make money, but it does suggest that investors buying in the current market will have to ride a short-term loss before the long-term trend carries them into profit.
The Shanghai Index has staged a powerful breakout from a severe long-term downtrend. The breakout overcame two significant resistance features. The first feature was the strong resistance level near 2,300. The market consolidated around this level as the breakout developed.
Small gecko lizards defying gravity by scuttling along the underside of a ceiling are a common feature of living in Asia. The Dow Jones Industrial Average chart has the same characteristics, clinging to a powerful resistance level.
The KOSPI continues to lead market development in Asia, excluding China and Japan. China has similar breakout behavior, but it is from a downtrend. Japan remains in a tight trading range, again in a downtrend. It is Korea that is breaking out after an uptrend retreat.
The gold price has been historically influenced by three main factors – currency hedging, jewelry demand and central bank activity. To these factors we add a fourth – the activity of Exchange Traded Commodity Funds.
Australian author Donald Horne penned a book in the 1960s called The Lucky Country. The irony of the title eluded most readers who assumed it meant Australia was blessed with good fortune. Horne meant that given the bumbling mismanagement of Australian leaders that Australia was lucky to be as well off as it was. Fifty years later nothing seems to have changed and this is reflected in the relentless rise of the Australian dollar.
There are two important changes in the price behavior of oil. Forget about the current sabre rattling in the Gulf of Hormuz. That will cause some temporary rally spikes but this is within the context of a change in the oil trend environment. These rallies and retreats provide short term trading opportunities but longer-term traders are well positioned on the long side.