Charting Asia with Daryl Guppy

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  Wednesday, 7 May 2008 | 12:21 AM ET

Taiwan Titillation

Posted ByDaryl Guppy

Taiwanese stocks have so far, bucked the negative trend of Asian markets this year. The TaiEx is up 5.4 percent year-to-date. Will this rally continue as the year progresses?

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  Wednesday, 30 Apr 2008 | 3:03 AM ET

Shanghai Rallies, But Will It Last?

Posted ByDaryl Guppy

A rally is always something to get excited about, particularly after a market fall of around 50%. And that's exactly what Chinese stocks are experiencing at the moment. The Shanghai Composite Index is up 17% the past week due to strong earnings results and the reduction of stamp tax duties on share trading.

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  Monday, 7 Apr 2008 | 11:57 PM ET

Into the Frying Pan or Into Your Car?

Posted ByDaryl Guppy

Fill up the tank or heat the wok -- your car or your stomach? It's not a choice we usually expect to face, but welcome to a central inflationary dilemma.

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  Wednesday, 23 Apr 2008 | 1:26 AM ET

Hang Seng Highs and Lows

Posted ByDaryl Guppy

The Year of the Rat hasn't treated Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index very well so far. Year-to-date, the index is down over 10 percent. But things have been picking up of late. Month-to-date, the Hang Seng is up 9 percent. Is the Index turning a corner?

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  Wednesday, 16 Apr 2008 | 3:49 AM ET

Nifty or Sensitive?

Posted ByDaryl Guppy

The India story remains the same. Both indexes are defined by the January 2008 pile driver low . The sudden retreat in the markets set the bedrock foundation for future falls. Both of the India indexes, the Nifty 50, and the SENSEX have reached the targets set by these pile driver lows. These are generally minimum targets and the SENSEX has dropped down to 14,600 before finding support.

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  Monday, 31 Mar 2008 | 11:59 PM ET

Where The Nasdaq Goes ...

Posted ByDaryl Guppy

Couple or de-couple? To what extent are Asian economies linked to the U.S.? This question has been raised more frequently of late. While the jury's still out on that, it's clear that U.S. markets have an impact on Asia -- they are a leading indicator of the probability of trend continuation, or trend change in Asian markets.

The particularly interesting question is the relationship between the Dow, Nasdaq and the S&P 500. While the Dow grabs the headlines, the real recovery work is being done in the Nasdaq. Watching this performance gives a lead to Asia markets, and also highlights the behaviors which may signal consolidation and trend recovery.

The U.S. markets show a 'leaders and laggards' effect. The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all show common end-of-uptrend patterns. Each is moving towards the chart-pattern projected downside targets. But only the Nasdaq has reached the target and developed a leading indication of the nature of trend rebound activity.

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  Tuesday, 25 Mar 2008 | 12:02 AM ET

Hong Kong's Red Chips

Posted ByDaryl Guppy

Trading in Chinese companies is a complex undertaking. Many firms like PetroChina and ChinaMobile are listed in Shanghai, Hong Kong and New York. Multi-listings are not unusual. What is unique, is the performance of Hong Kong's China Enterprise Index (CEI), where Chinese companies are listed.

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  Tuesday, 18 Mar 2008 | 12:07 AM ET

A Grim Nikkei

Posted ByDaryl Guppy

Monday's Asian market rout on news of the Bear Stearns fire sale and the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut, hit Japan's Nikkei 225 Average hard.

The Nikkei closed, down 454.09 points, or 3.7 percent, to 11787.51. The index was down for the third straight trading session. And it's lost 1073.62 points, or 8.3 percent, over the past three trading days.

Monday was also the largest three-day point and percentage decline since January 22, the largest one-day point and percentage decline since March 3 and the Nikkei's lowest closing level since August 8, 2005.

Month-to-date, the Nikkei is down 13.3 percent. So far this year, it's down 23 percent.

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  Tuesday, 11 Mar 2008 | 2:16 AM ET

Crouching Yen, Hidden Dollar

Posted ByDaryl Guppy

The yen has surged to an eight-year high against the U.S. dollar as the greenback takes a hit from expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to counter the widening credit crisis and the economy's fall towards a recession.

The yen's rise has hit Japanese shares, raised worries about the health of Japanese exporters and stirred speculation that authorities in Tokyo may resume intervening to block yen strength after having stayed out of the market for four years.

And Charting Asia thinks this is the perfect time to take a look at the dollar/yen trend.

The support and resistance character of the dollar/yen (USD/JPY) chart provides reliable potential pivot points for a trend. As the price approaches a known support level, traders can position themselves in anticipation of a change in the trend.

In an uptrend, such as that in May 2005, a move above the resistance level at 109.00 was a clear signal of up trend continuation. More recently, in the context of the downtrend, the move below 109.00 is a clear signal of downtrend continuation.

This framework allows traders to set accurate trigger points and downside, or upside targets. We start with the monthly chart to identify the strategic resistance and support framework. Then we move into a smaller time frame to look for validation of the monthly chart analysis.

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  Tuesday, 4 Mar 2008 | 12:08 AM ET

Head, Shoulders, BHP Billiton

Posted ByDaryl Guppy

Commodities are hot this week, striking gold quite literally so to speak.

Platinum set a record for the second straight day Tuesday , and gold is on track to hit $1,000 an ounce on expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts and record high crude oil.

Along with booming metals prices, oil prices are near an all time peak and agricultural commodities are also trading at record highs as supply shortages and investment flows pump up prices.

The concerns that the U.S. economy is at or entering a recession are creating a cycle: a plunging dollar sparks a rally in commodity prices, which in turn hit stocks further as a weakening global economy may now also have to deal with inflationary pressures.

And it is against this backdrop that Australian resource giant BHP Billiton has issued its bid for rival Rio Tinto .

Melbourne-based BHP, the world's biggest mining company, in early February, formally proposed an all-share deal, to buy London-based Rio Tinto, in what would create a vast resources company. This has sparked off a lot of interest and trade in the the shares of the two firms, as well as a number of requests to chart the stock. Both companies are listed on exchanges in Australia and Britain. BHP also has American Depository Receipts (ADR) listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

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About Charting Asia

  • Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia. He runs training, analysis and resource workshops for retail and professional financial market traders involved in stocks, CFDs, warrants, derivatives, futures and commodities in China, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia. He has his own trading company, guppytraders.com.

 

  • Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia.

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