Futures Now Futures Now: Blog

More

  Wednesday, 30 Aug 2017 | 2:22 PM ET

Gold could keep rising to $1,400, according to market technician Louise Yamada

Posted ByAnnie Pei

Technician Louise Yamada says there's one chart showing that gold's shining rally is far from over.

Gold has surged 14 percent this year, and on Tuesday settled at an 11-month high of $1,318.90. This brought the precious metal decisively above the $1,300 level where it topped out several times before.

Yamada's chart of gold dating back to 2013 shows with the $1,300 mark broken, "the next level is about $1,380."

Yamada, of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, added Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now" that "$1,400, however, would be key resistance because that goes all the way back to 2014, which would be about a four-year base."

The rise for gold has come as North Korea concerns have spurred demand for safe haven assets, and as the dollar index has fallen to a 2½-year low. Gold tends to enjoy an inverse relationship to the U.S. currency.

If gold continues to rise, stocks could be in trouble.

"Gold and equities move inversely, so if gold continues up here it's probably possible that we move more into a corrective trend in equities as gold rallies up," she said. "There's a lot here that suggest that equities are looking a little fragile under the surface, and it would be logical that you would see equities pull back a little or consolidate."

»Read more
  Sunday, 27 Aug 2017 | 10:24 AM ET

Here are the 3 things that will drive gold higher

Posted ByAnnie Pei

Gold has surged more than 12 percent this year, and Exante Data founder Jens Nordvig says there are three main macroeconomic trends that are behind the rally.

"I would say it's the low-yield environment, the trend of the dollar and strong growth in emerging markets [that are driving gold]," he said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now."

"Those three things together are some of the things that have underpinned the gold rally, and they're still here."

Low bond yields generally lessen the opportunity cost of holding gold, as gold yields nothing and therefore investors are less tempted to pour into bonds than they are into the yellow metal. With U.S. Treasury yields near June lows, the drop in bond yields has partly accounted for gold's recently rally that began in early July.

Of course, gold's advance has also been due in part to the decline in the dollar. The yellow metal and greenback have an inverse relationship, and while gold has rallied, the dollar has dropped about 9 percent from the start of the year. What's more, Nordvig also believes the "dollar retracement" this year might still continue. And so while it's "just uncertain right now to take a long dollar position," gold may be where investors want to look if the greenback continues to fall.

Aside from those three economic factors, Nordvig mentions that tensions in Washington could also contribute to another rally for gold.

"There's the government shutdown risk and then there's the debt ceiling risk," he said. "There's been an elevated risk since Trump started to talk about it in more casual terms at his speech earlier this week."

"That's definitely something that's holding the market back, and it's something that could potentially give a boost to gold while dragging the dollar down," Nordvig added.

Gold did climb above $1,300 on Friday, hitting a one-week high before dropping back below that key technical level.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 23 Aug 2017 | 12:35 PM ET

This one surging metal could see an even bigger rally ahead

Posted ByAnnie Pei

Copper has soared about 19 percent this year, and Vertical Research Partners' Mike Dudas says the metal has more room to run.

"It has had a really strong move over the last 6 to 7 weeks, so I wouldn't be surprised to see if there's a little bit of a bad data point in China, which could cause a pullback," he said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "But I would buy a pullback in copper if there is one."

The metals and mining analyst remains optimistic on copper because of a number of factors that he says have been driving the metals surge this year. Gold and silver are also up 12 percent and 6 percent respectively, thanks to "less supply and better demand" in the metals markets.

But there are other macroeconomic trends, says Dudas, that are also contributing to his prediction that the metals will keep rallying.

"When you combine [supply and demand] with some more favorable macros like a weaker U.S. dollar and what appears to be a more dovish Fed, I think the rally's going to continue," he explained.

Gold has also spiked in the last week thanks to political uncertainty that also involved the exit of then-White House chief strategist Steve Bannon, with investors pouring into the metal as a traditional safety trade.

Copper was still hovering near its November 2014 highs on Wednesday but trading below $3. Dudas identified $3 as a key technical level for copper, which it last hit that same year as well.

»Read more
  Sunday, 20 Aug 2017 | 5:00 PM ET

Ron Paul: 50% stock market plunge 'conceivable,' but it's not President Trump's fault

Ron Paul's sell-off prediction just got more severe.

The former Republican Congressman from Texas believes escalating dysfunction in Washington will create even more pain for Wall Street.

"A 50 percent pullback is conceivable," Paul said on "Futures Now" recently. "I don't believe it's ten years off. I don't even believe it's a year off. "

According to his calculations, it would cut the S&P 500 Index in half, to 1212, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average would collapse to 10,837.

Paul noted that there's a lot of chaos in Washington right now, with an "unpredictable president" and those who are inclined to "tear him apart" but if the market takes that big of a tumble, he doesn't see it as Trump's fault.

"It's all man-made. It's not the fault of Donald Trump in the last week. If the market crashes tomorrow and we have a great depression, he didn't do it in six months. It took more like six or ten years to cause all these problems that we're facing," he said.

What's more, it would come at the expense of businesses who are counting on reforms such as tax cuts and fewer regulations, according to Paul.

Paul, who is also known for his presidential runs, originally made his case for a somewhat more benign 25 percent downturn on June 29 on "Futures Now." He argued Wall Street is overestimating the strength of the economy, and the Federal Reserve kept interest rates too low for too long. He said the situation for stocks could turn ugly as soon as October.

Stocks will try to bounce back on Monday from multiple losing weeks in a row. The Nasdaq just saw its fourth consecutive week of losses. Meanwhile, the Dow & S&P 500's losing streak now sits at two weeks.

If Paul's vision is right, the damage is bound to worsen.

"I see the foundation of our system built on sand, and a big wind comes along to blow it down," Paul said.

»Read more
  Saturday, 19 Aug 2017 | 5:00 PM ET

BMO explains why stocks, sitting near record highs, actually look pretty cheap

Posted ByAnnie Pei

Stocks have been trading at the most expensive levels since 2004, but the chief investment officer at BMO says it's actually trading at a discount to one area of the market.

"The market looks expensive relative to its history when you look at a lot of the traditional measures like price to sales, price to earnings and so forth," said Jack Ablin on CNBC's "Futures Now" this week. "But when you look at the stock market through the lens of bonds, the stock market still looks cheap."

According to Ablin, the "earnings yield" in the market has historically matched the triple-B bond yield, which is the yield for the lowest investment-grade bonds. Recently, however, that trend has begun to reverse, and Ablin says that is a sign to buy stocks over bonds.

"Now, the triple-B bond yield is trading about 1.5 to 2 percent below that of the earnings yield," said Ablin. "Now I would argue for at least more attractive capital going into equity over bonds."

What's more, Ablin also said that "positive stimulus" in the U.S. and around the world is signaling a positive economic outlook for global markets.

Stocks rallied on Friday, fueled by news that White House chief strategist Steve Bannon was leaving his position. This was after a morning where the Dow touched its lowest level since July 27, and the S&P 500 Index its lowest level since July 11.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 16 Aug 2017 | 10:29 AM ET

This market rally is on ‘borrowed time’: Strategist

Posted ByAnnie Pei

The long-running bull market could be on its last legs, says PNC's Bill Stone.

"I want people to get a little careful because we've gone so much longer than normal without even a 5 percent pullback," Stone said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now."

According to the global chief investment strategist at PNC Asset Management, the market as of Tuesday had spent 281 trading days without a 5 percent pullback and 375 trading days without a 10 percent correction. That is significantly longer than the average 50-day streak for a 5 percent pullback and 167-day run for a 10 percent drop. The length of time without these dips has Stone expecting a reversal at some point in the near future.

"At the end of the day, you just want to get yourself positioned that you know that we're probably a bit on some borrowed time in terms of a sell-off," he said.

The strategist believes that two key factors could eventually turn the market rally on its head. First, Stone said, a "whole lot of policy [isn't] priced in now at all." While certain policies, like tax reform, have become a source of discussion for Wall Street, others like repatriation haven't actually made a splash in market outlooks just yet, he said. Furthermore, while global economic growth has been in a tailwind, if that were to reverse, then Stone would be "more concerned."

However, Stone stresses that in the meantime, U.S. economic growth looks strong and the global economy is also in a positive place.

As of Tuesday's close, however, only the Dow was higher for the month, though the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were still hovering near all-time highs.

»Read more
  Sunday, 13 Aug 2017 | 5:00 PM ET

'Cowboy' trader Bill Perkins: Look for this commodity to jump more than 30 percent

Bill Perkins of energy hedge fund Skylar Capital says the natural gas market could soon rev up.

With American exports of natural gas on the rise, while infrastructure "isn't coming on fast enough," Perkins makes the point that "we actually have a very tight market now."

"Right now we have the demand-side infrastructure — that being exports — coming on first, and the supply-side infrastructure has not yet caught up," Perkins said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now."

"I do believe eventually supply will catch up and kind of normalize prices, but for the next 12 to 18 months, I think the market is in an increasingly bullish position."

The commodity has recently jumped from $2.75 per million Btu to about $3 per million Btu. During the winter, Perkins expects natural gas prices to rise to $4.

Yet Perkins grants that weather, that famous driver of natural gas, could throw a wrench in that thesis.

The supply condition is "not tight enough to overcome a very warm winter," he said. "A warmer winter will probably keep prices in the same range — but as we go further out the [futures] curve, I think it's extremely bullish."

Colder weather in winter increases demand for natural gas for heating homes.

In a recent profile in The Wall Street Journal, Perkins was declared to be "the 'last cowboy' betting on volatile gas markets."

In addition to his grand bets on natural gas, Perkins is known for playing poker at the highest stakes and for engaging in wild proposition bets, such as that two brothers with a 171-pound weight difference could not get to the same weight within a year's time. If professional poker players Jamie and Matt Staples manage to pull off the feat, Perkins stands to lose $150,000.

Disclosure: Perkins is long natural gas futures and bullish call options on natural gas.

»Read more
  Saturday, 12 Aug 2017 | 5:00 PM ET

Brace for a correction: Here's why the rally's days may really be numbered now

  Wednesday, 9 Aug 2017 | 12:48 PM ET

Bitcoin is almost triple the price of gold – here’s what traders think you should buy

Posted ByAnnie Pei

Two traders are unfazed by bitcoin's meteoric surge and say that between the cryptocurrency and gold, you're better off trading the yellow metal.

Bitcoin has jumped 240 percent this year to a high of $3,288 on Wednesday, while gold was trading at $1,280. But despite the bitcoin gains, Brian Stutland of Equity Armor Investments and Path Trading Partners' Bob Iaccino believe gold is still a better bet than bitcoin from technical and fundamental perspectives.

"When you look at gold over the past couple of months, [it has] tracked very well [relative] to the cryptocurrency," Stutland said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "If you price adjust and volatility adjust, I think gold still has a little bit of catching up to do."

As for Iaccino, he believes that while bitcoin's popularity is indisputable, a takeover by another digital currency could be possible, leading him to believe that bitcoin is more unstable than many may think.

"Bitcoin, right now, is the most popular [cryptocurrency] and it is the most valuable one," he said. "But I don't see it as a store of value, because any [other cryptocurrency platform] could come out with a slightly better technology and completely replace bitcoin."

In order to catch up to all the action bitcoin is seeing, Stutland wants to buy gold at the $1,265 level, targeting a move up to $1,285 by December expiration with a stop at $1,250, a key support level that gold has held, according to the trader.

"The volatility is tremendous, so you're going to see wild swings in here and that is something to be aware of," he said.

Gold actually rose more than 1 percent on Wednesday off threats delivered by President Donald Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un to one another, the yellow metal being one of the biggest safety trades in times of possible turmoil. Bitcoin, on the other hand, dropped more than 3 percent Wednesday, reversing some of the cryptocurrency's gains from the week

»Read more
  Wednesday, 9 Aug 2017 | 7:30 AM ET

This hard-hit commodity could drop another 30 percent, trader says

Posted ByBrian Price

One of Wall Street's most closely followed commodities watchers says natural gas bulls are about to get stuck.

"The supply curve is on the cusp of really starting to take off in response to a dry gas rig count in the U.S. that's gone from 80 rigs to 189 rigs in the last 12 months," Robert Raymond said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now" when discussing oversupply in the market. "People are underestimating how much associated natural gas is really going to come out of a lot of the 'oil shale wells' as well."

The founder of RCH Energy explained that these factors will continue to spur overproduction in the market. From here, Raymond believes this action will serve as a lead balloon for the price of the commodity.

"We think there's reasonable risk down to the $2.20 to $2.30 range," noted Raymond, who added there's additional risk for nat gas falling to $1.75 before the end of the year.

From current levels, a drop to $1.75 in the next three to six months would represent more than a 30 percent decline in price.

"Ultimately, the issue becomes the associated gas production that's going to come out of places like West Texas and Oklahoma, which is probably enough to satiate the demand curve," warned Raymond.

"If the dry gas guys keep drilling, at some point you're going to have to bid gas prices down to a level to get some of them to stop drilling."

Before this call, Raymond had been waving a red warning flag on natural gas prices. In February he reaffirmed his bearish outlook for nat gas on "Fast Money" noting that "it's hard to get constructive on gas."

Within a week of the call, prices tumbled 10 percent en route to 2017 lows. Now, despite a slight recovery in March, nat gas is down 24 percent year to date.

"In the back half of the year, you're going to see supply grow by a [billion cubic feet of natural gas] per day each month between now and Christmas," Raymond said. "The demand just can't keep up with that."

»Read more

Contact Futures Now: Blog

  • Showtimes

    Watch Futures Now Tuesdays & Thursdays 1p ET exclusively on cnbc.com!

Follow Futures Now: Blog

Sponsor Links

  • CME Group brings buyers and sellers together through its CME Globex electronic trading platform and trading facilities in New York and Chicago.

  • Take your trading to the next level with a platform that lets you trade stocks, options, futures and forex all in one place with no platform or data with no trade minimums. Open an account with TD Ameritrade and get up to $600 cash.