Futures Now Futures Now: Blog


  Sunday, 5 Jun 2016 | 5:01 PM ET

Time to get nervous—the Fed painted itself into a corner: Saxo Bank CIO

The Federal Reserve may be in a box when it comes to conducting monetary policy — a scenario likely exacerbated by disappointing jobs report numbers released last week.

Just 38,000 jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in May, the weakest performance in nearly six years. The data stoked new fears about the economy's health, and threw cold water on the Fed's recent hints at higher rates in the coming months.

"Friday's data again pushes back decisions," said Saxo Bank chief economist and chief investment officer Steen Jakobsen told CNBC recently. "The ability of the Fed to move now is almost entirely based on their 'need' or 'want.'"

Late last month, Fed chief Janet Yellen said in a speech that an interest rate hike was "appropriate" in the near term, and could rise gradually. With that in mind, Jakobsen argued the Fed has painted itself into a corner, as well as other central banks around the world.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 1 Jun 2016 | 7:35 AM ET

The OPEC meeting won’t move oil—but here’s what will: Analyst

Posted ByBrian Price

After oil touched $50 per barrel for the first time since November, investors remain focused on the potential outcome of this week's OPEC meeting in Vienna. However, one of Wall Street's most closely followed analysts has a clear message: The event is meaningless.

"I see nothing of consequence that will be discussed at this meeting," Tom Kloza said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now."

The global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service is adamant that no progress was made between Saudi Arabia and Iran during OPEC's last gathering in Doha, Qatar. Therefore, he believes that the table is not set for any sort of announcement regarding a freeze or cut in June.

Read MoreStocks set for big, but short, rally of 5 to 10 percent: Analyst

"One can argue that OPEC is no longer a cartel, at least in the classic sense of a cartel having influence over supply and prices," noted Kloza in a note. So, with OPEC irrelevant in Kloza's eyes, he has turned his attention to the Federal Reserve as a key factor regarding the price of oil.

"There's no question that higher interest rates and less easy money are going to complicate the oil business," he said on "Futures Now."

»Read more
  Wednesday, 1 Jun 2016 | 6:59 AM ET

The market is strange, and here’s what it means for your next move

The S&P 500 is in an unusual rut: It hasn't reached a new high in more than a year.

This scenario has only happened 16 times since World War II, and it's generally been seen amid deep market corrections. But investors might want to think twice about throwing in the towel.

"We looked at cases when you went this long without a new one-year high, and it's actually quite rare," Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research, said recently on CNBC's "Futures Now." "There's a big dichotomy depending on how big the market declined during that one year walk through the wilderness."

The S&P last hit a yearly high — and an all-time record — of 2,134.72 on May 20, 2015. Since then, the index has fallen as much as 15 percent without hitting a new high. But Clissold doesn't find this alarming.

"If there was a really big decline greater than 20 percent during that one-year period, which is a classic bear market, actually the market really struggled after that," he said.

History shows that bigger declines have foreshadowed longer periods of recovery and smaller gains over the next year, while smaller drops have led to quicker returns to new highs and bigger gains over the subsequent year, according to Clissold.

He also points out that sentiment gauges he follows closely have shown a high level of pessimism — more than one might expect given the "small decline" we've had over the past couple of months.

"I think that would bode well for the market eventually working its way higher and breaking out to new highs," he said.

And if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by a quarter point within the next couple of months, Clissold believes it could actually push stocks even higher.

"July seems to be more likely [than a June rate hike]. So once that uncertainty clears up one way or the other in the grand scheme of things, one rate hike probably isn't going to kill this market. So you get that uncertainty lifted and the market could move higher from there," he said.

He sees the S&P ending the year at 2,200, 5 percent above Tuesday's closing price.

»Read more
  Sunday, 29 May 2016 | 5:00 PM ET

Stocks set for big rally—but blink and you'll miss it: Analyst

One Wall Street firm predicts stocks are about to surge, but it could be over within the blink of an eye.

Investors are anticipating the outcome of the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, at a time when Federal Reserve policymakers have hinted at raising borrowing costs. On Friday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that an interest rate hike in the coming months would be appropriate, given the economic data.

Some Wall Street watchers think a rate increase could come as early as next month, which could help boost markets as the uncertainty dissipates.

"We could see some kind of rally that could last until the FOMC meeting in a few weeks," Kristina Hooper, head of U.S. capital markets research and strategy at Allianz Global Investors, recently told CNBC's "Futures Now. "The market seems to be coming to terms a bit more with the possibility of a Fed rate hike in June."

As a result, Hooper sees the S&P 500 index surging 5 to 10 percent as anxiety over the June Fed meeting dissipates. However, once the Fed makes its decision on rates, she believes uncertainty could climb again in anticipation of the central bank's next move.

"For so many years now, the Fed really has dominated and in many ways dictated risk and reward profiles for asset classes," said Hooper. "That doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon."

»Read more
  Wednesday, 25 May 2016 | 7:00 AM ET

Get into gold now! Prices could hit $1,900: Boockvar

Posted ByBrian Price

Gold's losing streak continued on Tuesday as the precious metal tumbled to its lowest level in more than five weeks. However, one of Wall Street's most closely followed analysts says the dip presents a prime buying opportunity and that bears are reading the market incorrectly.

"This is just the beginning of a new bull market in the metals," the Lindsey Group's chief market analyst Peter Boockvar told CNBC's "Futures Now" on Tuesday.

Ultimately, Boockvar believes that the 2011 highs of around $1,900 for gold are not only reachable, but surpassable, as reasoned that bull markets historically exceed the previous bull market peak at some point.

As Boockvar sees it, it's just a matter of when.

"In order to be bearish on gold, you have to believe that the Fed is going to embark on 100 to 200 basis points of hikes over the next couple of years, which I think is completely unrealistic," added Boockvar. "This is an ideal opportunity for those who have not gotten in."

Read MoreWhen's it safe to buy gold? After the Fed hikes, Gartman says

Citing the relative-strength index, Boockvar said that gold is the most oversold it has been since mid-December. He also added that global interest rates have given trillions of dollars' worth of sovereign bonds negative yield. Coupled with rising Fed rates, this development would theoretically provide gold investors with positive carry on gold. The precious metal is in the midst of its longest losing streak since November 2015.

For additional context, Boockvar highlighted the mid-2000s, when the Fed raised the Federal funds rate from 1 percent to 5 percent. During that time, gold went from $400 to $700. The analyst also cited the start of 2016, when Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda adopted negative interest rates. However, the move failed to help the nation achieve stability in its currency.

»Read more
  Sunday, 22 May 2016 | 3:00 PM ET

Buy gold ... but only after this happens: Gartman

Posted ByBrian Price

Something strange is happening right now in the gold market, and it has commodities investor Dennis Gartman erring on the side of caution.

Gold ended Friday with its biggest weekly drop in two months, and its third straight week of losses. Conversely, the dollar saw its third straight week of gains following comments from New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley. The central banker indicated that markets were underestimating the likelihood of an interest rate increase in June or July.

The backdrop suggests investors may be positioning themselves for higher rates—a possibility not lost on Gartman, who has taken note of some interesting movements in the yellow metal.

"There has been an aggressive seller of spot gold at 1,270 to 1,285," Gartman told CNBC's "Futures Now" in an interview. "Whoever that person or institution is will likely continue to be there until after a rate increase," he added.

Read MoreGold has entered a new gold market: JPMorgan

»Read more
  Wednesday, 18 May 2016 | 7:30 AM ET

The S&P 500 could plummet to 1,573 this year: NorthmanTrader's Henrich

A closely followed market watcher has spotted a disturbing pattern that could bring the S&P 500 down to a level not seen since June 2013.

"The technical target that I see would be 1,573 on the S&P," NorthmanTrader.com founder Sven Henrich said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." He believes it could happen in a matter of months.

While Henrich doesn't manage any money, his chart work on NorthmanTrader has garnered a significant amount of attention in the online world. His latest take on stocks comes as nearly all of Monday's big market gains were wiped out Tuesday, when the index closed at 2,047.21.

The S&P 500 must stay above the 2,025 to 2,030 range in order to keep the S&P 500 from falling by nearly 500 points from current levels, Henrich said.

"If we break below this level by the end of May, then stocks may actually indeed retest lows or break lower because the technical targets on a break like that would be significantly lower from here," he said.

Henrich's bear case revolves around earnings declining by 7.1 percent in the first quarter, even as most central banks continue to pursue stimulative policies.

He points out that official GAAP earnings have been declining since 2015 — thus making stocks very expensive. He calls this a "technical red flag."

The S&P 500 is at a structurally high risk of repeating a major topping pattern consistent with the year 2000 and 2007, according to Henrich.

On the other hand, if this scenario doesn't play out, he believes a bull case could emerge.

"If GAAP earnings can reverse the trend and reverse higher, then markets can break to sustained new highs with technical targets of 2,334 and 2,458," Henrich told CNBC.

»Read more
  Friday, 13 May 2016 | 7:00 AM ET

Forget the wall of worry! S&P will hit new highs: Strategist

Posted ByBrian Price

One of Wall Street's most closely followed strategists has a message for investors: Stop worrying!

"We're going to break through and head up to new highs," said Jim Paulsen on CNBC's "Futures Now" on Thursday when discussing why the S&P 500 will hit 2,200. Paulsen noted that the constant fears over the economic slowdown in China, the oversupply of oil and even concerns over who the next president will be are clouding the marketplace and creating unnecessary jitters on Wall Street. "Climbing a wall of worry is back and is likely to push us up into new highs and generate a little optimistic excitement again." Paulsen's 2,200 price target on the S&P 500 represents a more than 6 percent rise from where the large-cap index is currently trading around 2,064.

Read MoreThis rare earnings bright spot could send stocks soaring

The chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management said that strong employment and wage growth, the ending of a grim earnings season and reduced deflationary fears worldwide thanks to rising oil prices make him adamant that the best is yet to come for stocks. However, he did say the Fed's dovish approach could be the one thing that could potentially derail growth in 2016.

"They're keeping us as the start line of their tightening cycle," Paulsen said when discussing the Fed's delay since raising rates for the first time in seven years back in December of 2015. "It's like pulling a Band-Aid off a little bit at a time, rather than just ripping it off and letting the markets adjust."

Paulsen concluded that the Fed can always reference a global issue as reasoning for not raising rates, but that the central bank needs to avoid keeping the U.S. economy in limbo.

"I'm amazed they've stayed as long as they have with this policy," said Paulsen. "They continue to come up with reasons not to raise rates. A 'Brexit' being the most recent one."

Nonetheless, Paulsen is confident that stocks will continue to rise and break out of the tight range we've been in for the last year.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 11 May 2016 | 7:00 AM ET

Gold has entered a new bull market: JPMorgan

Posted ByBrian Price

Gold prices are surging this year, and that has one of Wall Street's largest banks flocking to the yellow metal.

"We're recommending our clients to position for a new and very long bull market for gold," JPMorgan Private Bank's Solita Marcelli said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." After seeing three back-to-back years of losses, the precious metal has rallied 20 percent in 2016. And that's just the start of the next leg higher, according to Marcelli. "$1,400 is very much in the cards this year."

Read MoreFutures Now: Gold Shines

The firm's global head of fixed income, currencies and commodities reasoned that, with so many negative interest rate policies around the world, gold will continue to be bought as an alternative currency. And, with expectations that investors will seek to hedge against the resulting volatility, Marcelli believes that gold will remain attractive in a world where bonds and U.S. rates may cease to be the main risk-off asset.

"Central Banks may consider diversifying their reserves [as they anticipate] negative rates on existing holdings," said Marcelli, when discussing the commodity as safe-haven trade. "Gold is a great portfolio hedge in an environment where the world government bonds are yielding at historically low levels."

While Marcelli admits the move will come slowly, she remains convinced that the commodity will continue to grind higher — with that key $1,400 level being the first line in the sand.

"Gold is looking more and more attractive every single day," concluded Marcelli. "As a nonyielding asset, it has a minimal storage cost, so when you compare it to negative-yielding assets, it actually has a positive carry."

»Read more
  Tuesday, 10 May 2016 | 2:15 PM ET

Crude just made a 'golden cross' but don’t get too excited: Trader

Posted ByAmanda Diaz

Oil's chart just formed a key technical pattern that's sure to have the bulls running wild, but one trader warns investors shouldn't get too carried away.

"People are going to get really excited about the fact that we are seeing what some call a 'golden cross,'" Scott Nations told CNBC's "Futures Now" on Tuesday. A golden cross refers to when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average — technicians often view this occurrence as a bullish reversal in trend. In the case of oil, its 50-day moving average touched the 200-day moving average Tuesday.

According to Nations, in crude's specific case, where its 50-day moving average crossed its 200-day moving average on Tuesday, it's merely a temporary bounce. "[The 'golden cross'] means almost nothing when the 200-day moving average is falling as it is right now," explained the chief investment officer and president of NationsShares.

Furthermore, Nations noted that oil is butting up against resistance around the $45 level. That doesn't discount the fact that we could see slightly higher crude prices in the near future, as Nations pointed out that the outages due to the wildfires in Canada will continue to support prices in the near term.

However, he said the likelihood of a rip-roaring rally is still slim. "I think we are going to have to see something really fundamental change before we can see a lot more upside."

Oil was up more than 2 percent Tuesday, trading at just under $44.50 per barrel.

»Read more

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