Majority of Investors Wait for Election Results, Weigh Potential Impact on Market
FT. LAUDERDALE, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- In a late October poll of more than 225 self-directed investors by TradeKing Group, Inc., 47 percent said a win by Governor Romney would make them “more bullish” on the market, while only 20 percent said a win by President Obama would make them “more bullish.”
While President Obama’s October numbers improved slightly on this question from the January and July TradeKing surveys, more than twice as many respondents expressed they would be bullish on the market under a Romney presidency. Interestingly, in a TradeKing survey conducted just a year ago in the midst of the GOP primary race, investors were asked to pick which Republican candidate running for president would be most effective in moving the economy forward. In that survey, Governor Romney received only 16 percent of responses. October 2011 TradeKing Survey Results
The October 2012 survey also revealed that the majority of investors are taking a neutral position on the market through the end of the year, watching for results from the U.S. election, quarterly earnings, and international markets, among other indicators.
The in-house survey was conducted October 25-31st, 2012 by TradeKing Group, Inc., parent of online brokers TradeKing (www.tradeking.com) and Zecco Trading (www.zecco.com), via email to 8,000+ clients, with an estimated 95 percent confidence level.
Key Highlights from the Survey
Overall Market Sentiment: Taking a Wait and See Position
- Fifty-three percent of investors surveyed said they are taking a “neutral” position on the market over the next three months, up from 51 percent in July and 47 percent in January.
- Twenty-four percent of investors described themselves as “bullish” over the next three months, up four points from July but still well below January’s high of 41 percent. Twenty-three percent described themselves as “bearish” over the next three months, down five points from July but up from January’s low of 12 percent.
- Investor reaction was mixed when it came to the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. When asked “Are the Federal Reserve's policies regarding interest rates helping to keep you in the market at this time?” 43 percent said “no,” 35 percent said “yes,” and 22 percent said they were “unsure.”
Post-Election Sentiment Projections
- Forty-seven percent said they would be “more bullish” on the market with a Romney win, 18 percent said they would be “more bearish” and 35 percent said their sentiment would be “unchanged.”
- Twenty percent of respondents said they would be “more bullish” on the market with an Obama re-election, 39 percent said they would be “more bearish” and 41 percent said their market sentiment would be “unchanged.”
Top Trading Triggers and Sectors
- Investors ranked quarterly earnings, international economic markets and the U.S. elections as their top trading triggers for the next three months.
- When asked to pick the favored sectors for the next three months from a “long” position, energy, healthcare and technology took the top spots. This quarter, respondents picked the retail, international and transportation/travel sectors as having the most potential from a “short” position.
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