Is This the End of the Ride for the Euro?
The euro got slammed today after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated he is watching the level of the currency and may have to reevaluate what a higher level does to inflation.
Today's tumult came just days after the euro slid on worries about political uncertainty in Spain and Italy, and it's leading investors to wonder if the bull run in the currency is coming to an end.
Todd Gordon is not particularly worried.
Gordon, the founder of TradingAnalysis.com, says the euro's fall was "in the charts." He told CNBC's Scott Wapner that the S&P 500 stock index had been moving in tandem with the German DAX index - but the DAX has been weakening recently, and "that's starting to precipitate a little risk-off tone here."
Gordon sees a clear reason why the euro has risen so far so fast: it has what he calls underlying strength, specifically the fact that even in the depths of the sovereign debt crisis, it could not fall all the way to 1.15 against the dollar.
"Sovereign bond yields are coming in, they've really stabilized against the German Bund, so things seem to be OK for now," he says. But the euro strength that has ensued means "the exporters are concerned that that's going to head off the stock rally."
So Gordon wants to sell the euro at 1.3420, setting a stop at 1.3520 and looking for a move to 1.3220. He sees key trendline support at that level, and suggests that Draghi may be able to contain the euro's strength by talking rather than shifting monetary policy.
Kathy Lien, a managing director at BK Asset Management, also sees only limited weakness in the euro. "Fundamentals remain intact - the tail risks have receded, the euro zone economy is still recovering and capital is returning to the region," she wrote in a note to clients.
Even so, Lien says, the fact that Draghi has indicated that the euro's level is on his radar may lead to euro selling pressure in the short term. She believes that "losses should be limited to support around 1.3270."
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