Trading the Yen's Next Move

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

After months of heading straight south, the yen has had a rather significant bounce this week, thanks to investors seeking shelter from the political turmoil in Italy. But if you think investment pros are about to turn uniformly bullish on the Japanese currency, think again.

"The safe haven trade seems to be a bit back on," says Kathy Lien, a managing director at BK Asset Management. "But in terms of the story about why the yen has weakened so much, I don't think that's over yet."

In fact, Lien argues that the current level of the dollar-yen currency pair is almost a "fire sale".

The Bank of Japan still has some easing moves ahead, Lien says, probably in April. And more immediately, she says, "I think that when we get the BOJ nomination, which can come tonight, tomorrow, that we're going to see a knee-jerk rally in dollar-yen, followed by a stronger move once the new governor comes out and reaffirms that he's going to take aggressive action."

Lien doesn't expect the yen's bounce earlier in the week to recur, she told CNBC's Simon Hobbs.

"Take a look at the euro now, it is not falling as much as you would think," she says. "The safe haven bid trade will play a role in dollar-yen, but i think that the longer term story is still going to be a weaker yen."

Lien says her firm has orders in to buy the yen. She recommends entering the trade at 91.25 with a stop at 90.00 and a target at 94.50, below the "key pivotal level" at 95.00.

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