Dow Record, Then and Now
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has made a new all-time high, surpassing the record it set in October of 2007. And while it has been an impressive run for the market over the past four years, perhaps we shouldn't pat ourselves on the back just yet.
One need only glance over a few key market metrics to see how different the world is now than it was in those heady autumn days of 2007.
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Back then we had gross domestic product growth of 2.5 percent. Today, we were recently relieved to see our growth number revised up to a less-than-breakneck 0.1 percent. Back then we carried around a $97 billion deficit, but now we're in hock to the tune of $975.6 billion. And perhaps most troublingly, back then, 6.7 million Americans were considered unemployed; now 13.2 million, nearly double that, are looking for work.
So what does this all prove?
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As Oppenheimer Chief Market Technician Carter Worth puts it, "The warm blanket of $85 billion in monthly Fed buying has given investors a tremendous amount of courage." In other words, these numbers make it clear that the Fed's bond buying has driven this rally, plain and simple.
That's why the most important comparison may be this one: In October of 2007, the Federal Reserve had a $0.89 trillion balance sheet. Now that has ballooned to $3.01 trillion.
This also helps explain why the yield on the ten-year has dropped from 4.6 percent to a mere 1.9 percent.
(Read More: What the Pros Are Saying About the Market's Rally)
Check out all the figures below, and come up with your own judgment about what has driven this rally.
|Dow Jones Industrial Average||About 14200||About 14200|
|Regular Gas Price||$2.75||$3.73|
|Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force)||6.7 million||13.2 million|
|Americans On Food Stamps||26.9 million||47.69 million|
|Size of Fed's Balance Sheet||$0.89 trillion||$3.01 trillion|
|US Debt as a Percentage of GDP||38%||74.2%|
|US Deficit (LTM)||$97 billion||$975.6 billion|
|Total US Debt Outstanding||$9.008 trillion||$16.43 trillion|
|US Household Debt||$13.5 trillion||$12.87 trillion|
|Labor Force Participation Rate||65.8%||63.6%|
|S&P Rating of the US||AAA||AA+|
|10 Year Treasury Yield||4.64%||1.89%|
|NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day)||1.3 billion shares||545 million shares|
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