Dow's Best First Quarter Since 1998? Here's What Could Happen Next
By: Giovanny Moreano | Quantitative Analyst
Frilet Patrick | hemls.fr | Getty Images
The Dow is up 10 percent so far this quarter, on track for its best Q1 since 1998. What's previously happened after a strong first quarter?
Since 1950, there have been only twelve other instances when the DJIA was up more than 8 percent in the first quarter (11 of the last 12 times took place prior to the year 2000).
Historically, a strong first quarter correlates with strong gains for the year. There are bumps along the way, but most of the time, the Dow manages to post double-digit gains for the full year.
In ten of the last twelve times it occurred, for example, the Dow finished the year with a gain of more than 15 percent when the first quarter was up more than 8 percent.
DJIA Returns When Q1 > 8%
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Full Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 8.14% | -2.51% | 4.32% | -2.48% | 7.26% |
| 1998 | 11.27% | 1.73% | -12.39% | 17.07% | 16.10% |
| 1996 | 9.19% | 1.21% | 4.02% | 9.62% | 26.01% |
| 1995 | 8.43% | 9.58% | 5.11% | 6.85% | 33.45% |
| 1991 | 10.64% | -0.24% | 3.78% | 5.00% | 20.28% |
| 1987 | 21.61% | 4.94% | 7.35% | -25.32% | 2.31% |
| 1986 | 17.58% | 4.07% | -6.61% | 7.22% | 22.53% |
| 1976 | 17.25% | 0.33% | -1.26% | 1.46% | 17.86% |
| 1975 | 24.65% | 14.43% | -9.68% | 7.37% | 38.32% |
| 1967 | 10.22% | -0.66% | 7.72% | -2.33% | 15.20% |
| 1961 | 9.86% | 1.08% | 2.52% | 4.27% | 18.71% |
| 1954 | 8.05% | 9.89% | 8.07% | 12.19% | 43.96% |
Since 1950, there have been only twelve other instances when the DJIA was up more than 8 percent in the first quarter
