Dow's Best First Quarter Since 1998? Here's What Could Happen Next

Frilet Patrick | hemls.fr | Getty Images

The Dow is up 10 percent so far this quarter, on track for its best Q1 since 1998. What's previously happened after a strong first quarter?

Since 1950, there have been only twelve other instances when the DJIA was up more than 8 percent in the first quarter (11 of the last 12 times took place prior to the year 2000).

Historically, a strong first quarter correlates with strong gains for the year. There are bumps along the way, but most of the time, the Dow manages to post double-digit gains for the full year.

In ten of the last twelve times it occurred, for example, the Dow finished the year with a gain of more than 15 percent when the first quarter was up more than 8 percent.

DJIA Returns When Q1 > 8%

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Full Year
2012	8.14%	-2.51%	4.32%	-2.48%	7.26%
1998	11.27%	1.73%	-12.39%	17.07%	16.10%
1996	9.19%	1.21%	4.02%	9.62%	26.01%
1995	8.43%	9.58%	5.11%	6.85%	33.45%
1991	10.64%	-0.24%	3.78%	5.00%	20.28%
1987	21.61%	4.94%	7.35%	-25.32%	2.31%
1986	17.58%	4.07%	-6.61%	7.22%	22.53%
1976	17.25%	0.33%	-1.26%	1.46%	17.86%
1975	24.65%	14.43%	-9.68%	7.37%	38.32%
1967	10.22%	-0.66%	7.72%	-2.33%	15.20%
1961	9.86%	1.08%	2.52%	4.27%	18.71%
1954	8.05%	9.89%	8.07%	12.19%	43.96%