Holy Thursday! Will Cyprus Mess Up the Market?
By: Lee Brodie | Producer
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Buckle up. Thursday could be a rough day in the market with banks in Cyprus finally opening their doors after shuttering them for more than a week.
The headlines and pictures on TV could be scary.
Security officers are expected to be out in full force as the nation of Cyprus prepares for confusion and chaos as people try to get their money. It's entirely possible that there could be rioting and a run on banks.
As a result, Jim Cramer said it's reasonable to expect pandemonium in global markets; "that is to expect the euro to break down again, the Italian and Spanish bond markets to get hammered and all of the bourses in Europe to slump at least two to three percent.
However, even if it appears that the sky is falling in Cyprus, don't run away from the US stock market. If anything Cramer thinks the overseas mayhem will generate opportunity here at home.
Largely Cramer believes bull themes such as the renaissance in housing will dominate the S&P 500 all year – therefore he thinks pullbacks are opportunities.
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Following are Cramer's three most likely US stock market reactions to Cyprus and how he recommends trading in the wake.
Scenario #1: The market shrugs off bad news.
"It's an unlikely scenario but it's possible that there could be madness in Cyprus and the US market opens fractionally to meaningfully higher," said Cramer. "If that happens I wouldn't trust that lift at all. An up opening is a sucker's opening because bears will obliterate an up opening."
If you trade rather than invest Cramer said exit an up tape then you can come back in lower.
Scenario #2: The market opens flat
Much like a higher open, Cramer doesn't think a flat open is all that likely either.
However, in the event it happens Cramer says look for individual opportunities that can be gifts. One example would be the Pinnacle Foods IPO. "On a flat open, I'd get ready to buy," Cramer said.
"With all it's name brands such as Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Log Cabin and Mrs. Paul Fish Sticks along with a nearly 4% yield, I think this stock could be a great stock."
"If we get a flat open and it keeps a lid on the stock, I'm definitely a buyer," said Cramer.
Scenario #3 The market whooshes lower.
This is the scenario that Cramer thinks is most likely.
"I fully expect to see angry Cypriots hanging Germans in effigy and having fistfights while in bank lines," Cramer said.
If those kinds of images are on your television and the market looks to open at least 1% lower Cramer suggests setting buy levels and then pulling the trigger strategically.
"I think you go for domestic security," he said. And one stock that Cramer thinks is a buy on a pullback is General Mills. "Last week Ken Powell, the CEO of General Mills told Mad Money that things are terrific. I anticipate more buybacks, more dividend boosts, and more price appreciation."
Cramer also suggests watching Costco. "This company is almost entirely a domestic company with no European exposure."
And Cramer also suggests Radian, the mortgage insurer. "This is a fabulous business for a nation in the early innings of a housing boom."
What's the bottom line?
"I think Thursday will be ugly," said Cramer. "While others sell everything and sit mesmerized as the tear gas flies, I'd buy some Pinnacle, some Costco, some General Mills and some Radian."
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer? madmoney@cnbc.com
Questions, comments, suggestions for the "Mad Money" website? madcap@cnbc.com
