Will the crude rally derail the economic recovery? Many traders have asked themselves that question, as crude is trading $10 higher than it was just a month ago.
The answer, however, depends how long oil stays at these levels. If oil remains at these levels for the remainder of the year, then yes, it will have a negative impact. But with that being said, I don't expect us to remain this high for too much longer.
The fundamentals of this market, in my opinion, don't justify $107 oil. We are very near record supplies in Cushing, and the demand for crude, while higher than it was, is nowhere near the levels we saw just a few years ago.
And as new technology and new efficiencies are implemented, crude demand should not increase in any substantial way. We are only a few weeks from the end of driving season, which means that one of the main drivers of crude is about to be removed.
