What would happen to the markets in the event of an attack on Syria? If it was done during market hours, there is fairly wide consensus on what would happen:
Syrian attack: brief, sharp encounter
- Stocks: Down
- Bonds: Rally
- U.S. Dollar: Rally
- Gold: Rally
The question is to what degree. A surgical strike that lasts a couple of days as advertised would see the safe-haven trade short lived and markets returning back to a focus on the Federal Reserve meeting on Sept. 17.
But few traders believe that this action would be self-contained or a one-off. A protracted conflict will disproportionately hit cyclical names because of worries about global growth.
So in a protracted conflict, here's what to expect:
- Oil stocks: Rally
- Defensive stocks: Rally
- Precious metals: Rally
- Commodity Stocks: Down
- Consumer Discretionary stocks: Down
It could even get worse. If some kind of bombing begins this weekend, and there is still some conflict with the U.S. two weeks from now, it could be enough for the Fed not to begin tapering.
That's why traders are so nervous about this event.
—By CNBC's Bob Pisani
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