The yield curve has not been this inverted (where short term interest rates are higher than long term) since December of 2000--and the last time around--that level of inversion foreshadowed a steep decline in the equity market.
Tony Crescenzi is Chief Bond Market Strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. He says the yield curve is once again sending a strong signal. But CNBC's Rick Santelli woke up earlier than usual to give his opinion--which is quite different.
Crescenzi says with current figures--there's a 45% chance of a recession in the U.S. and that the main message from the bond markets is that the U.S. economy is getting weaker as the Fed is getting tighter with rates.
Hold on-says Santelli. With all due respect to Crescenzi--Santelli said the curve numbers really don't mean that much--and that the economy is strong enough to handle the curve.