Hey everyone. Timothy Sykes has some late week contest picks for you. And like we said about Jeff Mishlove, this is an imperfect science, but Timothy's putting in a lot of hard work and it's greatly appreciated. Here's his post: My “Early Week Contest Picks” have each reported earnings so the results are in. Out of the seven, most are flat, TZOO is down 20%, ANAD is down about 7% and ESRX is the lone winner up approximately 10%. TZOO really surprised me, but all in all, not a bad start to the week. Of course, I would’ve liked one or two more winners out of that group, but those are the risks when you play this strategy.
Let’s see if I can do better with my “Late Week Contest Picks”. You still have to do some research to see exactly when they report earnings. Trust me; you’ll thank me when you’re older. Here they are (in no specific order):
AAPL is my least favorite because it’s simply one behemoth of a company. I’m still picking it though because of the possibility for a large move higher. During the past few weeks, shorts and doubters have piled on, claiming that the iPhone isn’t going to be as successful as previously believed. My answer to this question for the contest: I don’t care. Sure, their future guidance may stink, but consensus estimates have been rising along with the stock price so I won’t bet against them just yet. The most important factor here is the higher than average possibility to have another blowout quarter, potentially pushing the stock above $100. I’m guessing a 35% chance for a big pop.
My next pick is ISLN. Their business is actually pretty cool, too, as they’ve signed several large customers like NBC,XM Satellite Radio, and Schlumberger to use their futuristic storage systems to store digital content. I know I have problems trying to store all my recent TV appearances so I understand the problem only too well. I have to be high about their technology because their stock chart stinks. We’ll see if any of these recent customer wins can help their earnings and if they do, then this depressed stock could really pop. I’m guessing a 25% chance for a big pop.
Another ugly chart play is NTRI. Their weight loss commercials are ubiquitous and their stock has recently suffered, basically because it’s gone up so much in just two short years. Any earnings surprise will surprise everybody and should allow for a large possible gain. I’m guessing a 30% chance for a big pop.
SPWR does not suffer from this “Ugly Chart Syndrome” because its chart is on fire. They are a recent solar IPO but still seem undervalued if we are to trust the steadily rising consensus analyst estimates. There is a huge risk/reward on this one when they report earnings. I’m guessing a 40% chance for a big pop.
My favorite play out of all of these is BIDU, the Chinese Google. The best stock trader in the world, Stevie Cohen of SAC Capital, loves this stock so much that he owns nearly 20% of the company. In billionaires I trust, so I love this stock, too. More importantly, BIDU has been known to be exceptionally volatile around earnings time and the stock is 30% off its highs. This all leads me to believe that if they surprise to the upside, BIDU’s stock could increase in the 10-20% range. I’m guessing there’s a 50% chance for a big pop.
Timothy Sykes is a hedge fund manager and star of the reality show Wall Street Warriors. He can be reached at www.timothysykes.com.
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