Mishlove: How My Portfolio Grew So Much

Hey folks, guest blogger Jeff Mishlove is back. Sorry to say, we're going to lose Jeff for awhile, as he does have his own business interests to take care of (all guest bloggers receive NO compensation from us). We certainly hope to hear from Jeff in the future, as he's always welcome to post here. Jeff's done pretty well this week--and as he says--you might have as well. Here's his post:

As I am writing this guest blog it is 8:00 pm (PDT), Thursday evening. I see on Yahoo finance that Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates, one of my recommendations for purchase on Thursday, has jumped up 15.79% in after hours trading – based on a favorable earnings report that was released just after the market closed. If that price holds, it means that one of my contest portfolios has grown by more than 100% this week.

And since this portfolio is based entirely on recommendations that I have published in my guest blog posts this week, other contestants relying upon my picks should have done equally well. In fact, I see that I am not even listed on the weekly leaderboard. So, it’s likely that others are doing even better!

Remember that my stock recommendations have consistently been for single-day holding periods. The 100% gain in my portfolio occurred in spite of more than one error creeping into my analysis. The results are all available for public inspection on the Million Dollar Buzz Blog. Here’s how it was accomplished:

My best recommendation for purchase on Friday, April 20, was Gentex Corp. By the close of trading on Monday, the price had moved up by 14.67%. It was one of four picks.

For purchase on Monday, I recommended four stocks. The best performer among these was Anixter International that rose 4.5% the next day. Incidentally, it was followed closely by AK Steel Holding Corporation which rose by 4.1%

For purchase on Tuesday, I listed five stock picks. The best of these was Overseas ShipholdingGroup that rose by 8.55%.

For purchase on Wednesday, I listed four stocks. The best of these was my top pick, Align Technology that rose an astonishing 33.4% in the next 24 hours. My second-best pick also did quite well. It was Rock-Tenn which rose 13.73%.

And, for purchase on Thursday, at this hour it appears that the best of my six picks was Varian, with the after hours gain previous mentioned of 15.79%.

When all of these gains are multiplied together, including bonus points, the total is a portfolio appreciation of 100.0058%.

The probability of correctly picking the best stock among each of my daily recommendations was 1 in 1920. But, given that there are now well over a million entries in the Portfolio Challenge. It would not surprise me that others have done equally well, or better this past week. I am confident that if VSEA does not drop in price before Friday’s close and I, myself, am not declared the weekly winner, then whoever does win this week will have gained more than 100% for the week.

After achieving a gain of this magnitude during a one week period – win or lose – I think it is time for me to take a bit of a break from the contest. And, I have travel in my schedule during the coming week. So, for the time being, I will discontinue my daily stock recommendation for the Million Dollar Buzz.

If you study my previous blogs carefully, and also examine the Handbook I have written for contestants, you will find that I have revealed a great deal about the methods I have been using.

Jeffrey Mishlove, PhD, is founder of www.forecastingsystems.com. He is author of Jeffrey Mishlove’s Handbook for Contestants in CNBC’s Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge.

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