Turkey, Yams, $100 Oil


Crude nearly touched $100 Wednesday, before it pulled back to close at $97.19. Will oil at these levels tip us into a recession next year? Find out from one of the nation’s top commodity traders.

Strategic investor Dennis Gartman joins the panel for this conversation. He’s author of “The Gartman Letter” a daily commentary on the global capital markets.

What is your interpretation of the way the stock market is behaving?

“We’re short,” says Gartman “and have been for the past 6 or 7 days and I’m fearful this has distance on the downside.”

Why do you think that?

“I think the consumer is tapped out,” Gartman replies. “The housing market is not going to recover anytime soon. And I think you’re going to see the banking industry pull in its reigns and curtail lending.”

He adds, “I think when we look back on this period of time, we’re going to say we started a recession. I think we’re already there. And I think we’ll see stock prices tumble from here.”

He also says “Take a look at what’s going on in the base metals. They’re all tumbling. When they tumble and inventories begin to accumulate it’s hard to be bullish on the economy.”

But you’re long tech?

“We have been long in tech and we like Apple (AAPL) a lot, Gartman says. “We’re always looking for things to buy. We’re selling short and looking for buys to hedge with. We started buying Microsoft (MSFT) today (Wednesday).”

What about oil and gold?

“I’ve been bullish on gold for years and I’m going to continue to err upon the side of being an owner of gold,” Gartman replies. “And crude oil will probably go past par – just to do it.”

What’s your favorite trade?

“We’re short Cummins Inc (CMI) because it’s one of the basic industries of the economy,” Gartman says. “Overall, we’re shorter basic industries and longer tech. The trade seems to be working.”


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Trader disclosure: On Nov. 21, 2007, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (YHOO), (INTC); Najarian Owns (COP) Options, (GOOG) Options, (TIBX) Options, (YHOO) Options; Finerman's Firm Owns (LTD), (TSO); Finerman's Firm Is Short (SPY), (IJR), (IYR), (MDY), (IWM), (LEH); Finerman's Firm Owns Russell 2000 Puts; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (GS)

Gartman Owns (BRS), (RIG), (AAPL), (MSFT)
Gartman Is Short (COH), (TIF), (HOG), (IYG), (CMI)
CIBC Gartman Index And Gartman Own Gold, Corn, Soybeans,Crude Oil