Brazil: Bank It On Rio


Does $100 oil combined with a slowing US economy make emerging markets a better, even safer play?

Tim Seymour, aka The Ambassador, joins the panel for this conversation. Following are excerpts.

The IShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ), is up more than 70% this year so far, says Seymour. As you might expect, the insatiable global demand for precious resources inside Brazil's borders is behind that surge. And behemoths like Petrobras (PZE) and C.V.R.D (RIO) are two of the chief suppliers of the materials.

But what you probably don't know is - surging commodity exports are only half this economic story. From Rio to Sao Paulo, the Brazilian middleclass is booming - and opening their wallets. Consumer spending has risen every one of the last 15 quarters.

And the spending isn't all in cash. Brazilians have fallen in love with credit for everything from car loans to groceries. Lenders like Banco Bradesco (BBD) and Banco Itau (ITU) are fueling the boom making this a credit carnivale.

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Although the long term outlook for this market is extraordinary, Tim Seymour recommends caution when playing Brazil. Momentum and technicals don’t look attractive, yet, he says.


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Trader disclosure: On Nov. 26, 2007, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (DIS), (YHOO), (ATVI), (INTC), (HAS); Najarian Owns (AMTD) Options, (AMZN) Options, (GOOG) Options, (YHOO) Options, (CFC) Options, (BSC) Options; Finerman Owns (HD); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (GS); Finerman's Firm Owns (WMT), (YHOO), (KSS), (TSO); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT) Options; Finerman's Firm Owns S&P 500 Puts; Fienrman's Firm Owns (HD) And (HD) Puts; Finerman's Firm Is Short (SPY), (IWM), (MDY), (IYR), (IJR), (MBI), (LEN), (BIG); Finerman's Firm Is Short (LEH) And Owns (LEH) Puts; Seygem Asset Management Owns (BBD), (ITU), (GFA), (NIHD), (INFY), (NETC); Seygem Asset Management Is Short (EEM)