It All Comes Down To This


After an historic credit crisis on Wall Street, the S&P 500 has given up just about all its gains for the year. So with just 24 full trading days left until 2008, it all comes down to the reigning mood in the market right now: And that’s pessimism.

In fact, a UBS poll, Monday indicates that investor confidence is the lowest in 2 years. But if you're thinking of selling everything, some of Wall Street's wisest say "Not so fast."

Legendary strategist Barton Biggs called for a year-end bounce on our show. He said, "The hedge fund universe has the lowest net long it's had in 4 years, and I think as we go into year-end here, we're gonna’ get a stampede!”

And noted bear Doug Kass has turned bullish for the end of the year.

So as the arguments continue over what December 31st will bring what's certain is that time is running out for you to make your move.

* * * *

Strategic investor Dennis Gartman joins the panel for this conversation. He’s author of “The Gartman Letter” a daily commentary on the global capital markets. Following are excerpts.

What do you think of the market, currently?

“It looks awfully weak doesn’t it?” says Gartman. “What we’re seeing is the market opening higher and closing on the lows. In the great bull run, you were opening low in the morning and closing on the highs. That’s one of the things I pay close attention to. To me it looks quite vulnerable.”

Where does the S&P go from here?

“It just keeps selling off and it bothers me, says Gartman. “Buyers seem very reticent about buying. Here we are almost lower on the year and the public hasn’t even begun to sell yet.”

He adds, “One of the chart patterns I watch is the IBD chart of mutual fund holdings. It’s now down on the year. Mutual funds are what the public holds…this isn’t a collapse, this is a deterioration.”

Would you refrain from owning stocks?

I’m long Transocean (RIG), Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL). And I’m short Tiffany’s (TIF) and Countrywide (CFC). I continue to own stuff, but we usually skew. And right now we are skewing to the short side.

S&P 500

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Trader disclosure: On Nov. 26, 2007, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (DIS), (YHOO), (ATVI), (INTC), (HAS); Najarian Owns (AMTD) Options, (AMZN) Options, (GOOG) Options, (YHOO) Options, (CFC) Options, (BSC) Options; Finerman Owns (HD); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (GS); Finerman's Firm Owns (WMT), (YHOO), (KSS), (TSO); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT) Options; Finerman's Firm Owns S&P 500 Puts; Fienrman's Firm Owns (HD) And (HD) Puts; Finerman's Firm Is Short (SPY), (IWM), (MDY), (IYR), (IJR), (MBI), (LEN), (BIG); Finerman's Firm Is Short (LEH) And Owns (LEH) Puts

Gartman Owns (GMO), (BRS), (RIG), (PBR), (YZC), (GS), (LEH), (IYG), (AAPL), (GLD), (MSFT), (SDSD); Gartman Is Short (XOM), (CMI), (HOG), (COH), (TIF), (SBUX), (CFC)