Time for the year end predictions, and I'll predict I stand by each one. Well, maybe not each one, but who knows, I might be right on at least number seven.
1. MANIC MARKETS Investors will have to be fleet footed to outperform next year. Lean on the looooong horizon. My guess, and these are simply guesses is that stocks finish the year higher but just by single digits. The yield on the ten-year ends 2008 well above its current level. The Fed continues to ease the market's pain with rate cuts, as much as another point. The dollar has worse moments before it gets better, and the cure may in fact be some form of intervention.
2. BIG NAME There's at least one more, possibly two, high profile CEOs who will fall as a result of the subprime story.
3. ECONORAMA Easy one. We'll know by the first quarter whether or not there's a recession. Call this forecasting with the benefit of hindsight.
4. FED Tim Geithner. You've heard of him. He runs the NY Fed. If the Fed does a great job fixing the credit crunch, he'll get the credit. if it doesn't, blame Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
5. SUBPRIME TSUNAMI the subprime story will dominate at least through the first half of the year, as well as its many housing market, credit market and financial industry offshoots. The first prosecutions in the subprime tsunami will come in 08 and we will see innovative efforts by prosecutors to lay the blame
6. FOLLOW THE MONEY The rush to invest in "green" and climate change related opportunities will continue to build.
7. I will use the word volatility about 243 times when describing next year's market moves.
8. AROUND THE WORLD: Pakistan will be viewed as the scariest country on earth and it will be increasingly clear to whoever runs Washington in the next four years that there are many, many parts of the world that need diplomatic attention, including our American neighbors to the south.
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