Oil, Commodity Outlook


This year, the emerging global growth engine pushed oil toward $100 and increased demand for all raw materials in the world. What happens next?

Strategic investor Dennis Gartman, author of The Gartman Letter, joins the panel for this conversation. Following is a synopsis of the conversation.

Will an economic slowing cause oil to rollover?

I thought for a while we might get to $100 but if indeed the economy slows - and I have a terrible suspicion that it already is – I think the chance of getting above $100 is pretty slim says Gartman.

How about China in '08?

China’s economy is so strong, Gartman says. Beijing has tried “everything” to slow it down. But until we get past the Olympics I can’t see anything slowing China’s economy.

What’s your best energy trade?

If you want to own energy own Suncor up in Canada. And now I like Petrobras in Brazil.

Have we seen a bottom in the dollar?

I think we've probably seen the worst for the next month or two Gartman replies. But it’s amazing how the turn of a year often constitutes a major turn in a currency. I’m long the Canadian dollar and I’m short the Euro.

What about the US dollar?

I think we’ve seen the worst, he adds.

I think the dollar continues to weaken against the emerging market currencies adds Tim Seymour. But against the major currencies I think it’s overdone.

What about soft commodities?

They will probably get more expensive next year Gartman speculates. I’ve been very bullish of the grain markets and I don’t see any reason to think soybeans will get weak. Perhaps wheat is a little “toppy,” but after the Congressional mandate for new fuel requirements – I anticipate strong demand for corn and soybeans.

How do you trade it?

We are long Mosaic (MOS) says Dennis Gartman.

I like that stock Tim Seymour adds and Potash (POT).

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Trader disclosure: On Dec. 21, 2007, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (YHOO), (EMC), (ATVI), (INTC); Finerman's Firm Owns (YHOO), (GS); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (IWM), (SPY); Finerman's Firm Owns (MDY) Puts; Finerman's Firm Is Short (LEH) And Owns (LEH) Puts; Finerman's Firm Owns S&P 500 Puts; Finerman's Firm Owns Russell 2000 Puts And Is Short The Russell 2000; Finerman's Firm Owns (MBI) Puts; Najarian Owns (C), (ETFC), (MS), (MSFT); Najarian Owns (YHOO) Options, (ANR) Options, (EMC) Options; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BLK), (CFC), (INTC), (MER), (MSFT), (YHOO); Seygem Asset Management Owns (MOS), (EEM); Gartman Owns (GMO), (POT), (PBR), (BRS), (BUD), (GLD), (BG), (SDS); Gartman Is Short (COH), (TIF), (SBUX), (CEO), (XOM), (CAT), (IYG); CIBC Gartman Index Owns Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, Gold, Crude Oil