Super Bowl Market Stats - Big Blue and Big Scores


As Darren Rovell pointed out, the market historically has outperformed when an original NFL team wins the Super Bowl and lags when an orginal AFL team wins. [Original NFL teams that switched to the AFC when the AFL and NFL merged include the Steelers, the Colts and the Browns.] We decided to look at the market's performance of AFL / NFL teams as well as the current AFC / NFC split. Either way you slice it you gotta say GO GIANTS!!!!!!!

Additionally, high scoring games (40+ points) also correspond to good market years while lower scoring games (39 points or less) coincide with weaker years. When the Giants and Patriots last played they had a combined score of 73 points! Could it be a good year after all?

Below are the avg annual returns for the Dow

, S&P

, and Nasdaq

for years that original AFL / NFL teams (Tampa Bay Bucs and Baltimore Raven expansion teams excluded) win the big game.Note NASDAQ data since 1972

  • 39 Super Bowls with Original AFL / NFL teams
    25 NFL wins
    14 AFL wins
  • Avg annual returns when NFL wins
    Dow up 14.7%
    S&P up 13.7%
    Nasdaq up 14.7%
  • Avg annual returns when AFL wins
    Dow down -2.8%
    S&P down -0.4%
    Nasdaq up 7.7%

Using the current AFC / NFC delineations, you get the following:

  • 41 Super bowls to date
    21 NFC wins
    20 AFC wins
  • Avg annual returns when NFC wins
    Dow up 14.3%
    S&P up 13.8%
    Nasdaq up 15.6%
  • Avg annual returns when AFC wins
    Dow up 2.0%
    S&P up 3.0%
    Nasdaq up 8.6%

Looking at High (40+) and Low scoring games:

  • 41 Super bowls to date
    26 games with 40 or more total points
    15 games with 39 or fewer points
  • Avg annual returns when total points scored are 40+
    Dow up 11.1%
    S&P up 11.8%
    Nasdaq up 17.2%
  • Avg annual returns total points scored are less than 40
    Dow up 3.4%
    S&P up 2.9%
    Nasdaq up 2.6%
  • Note - avgs when the NFC wins a low scoring game
    Dow up 10.5%
    S&P up 12.1%
    Nasdaq up 13.3%