Chesapeake Tuesday Political Futures

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Maryland, Washington, D.C., and Virginia vote today in the Chesapeake primaries. The Intrade market (www.intrade.com) is predicting that McCain and Obama will sweep today's election. According to Intrade, both McCain and Obama are most likely to receive the nomination from their parties.

With a substantial delegate lead, McCain has a 94% probability of getting the GOP nomination, a 7% increase since last week's Super Tuesday primaries.

Intrade gives Obama a 71% probability of getting the Democratic nod versus 29% for Clinton. Going into Super Tuesday last week, Obama had a 47% probability and Clinton had a 53% chance of success.

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The Associated Press/Ipsos poll predicts that Obama would narrowly beat McCain 48% to 42%, while McCain and Clinton are running somewhat even at 46% to 45% respectively.

The Rasmussen Reports' daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows similar data to the AP poll in that McCain is leading Clinton in the presidential election 45% to 43% and that Obama leads McCain 44% to 40%. (www.rasmussenreports.com)

For today's primaries, Intrade is projecting a sweep by McCain and Obama:

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  • Maryland — Obama is showing a 90% probability of winning for the Democrats while McCain has a 94.2% chance of success for the GOP.
  • Virginia — Obama is showing a 91% probability that he will win Virginia while McCain has an 86.1% chance of victory.