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On The Job Trading

The number of people filing for unemployment claims dropped last week, explains Melissa Lee. However, the Street still expects a soft report on February payrolls which is due out Friday.

Joe Lavorgna, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist joins the panel for this conversation. Following is a synopsis of his main points.

Predictions?

More doom. The data Friday will probably be terrible, says Lavorgna. We think the jobs number will be down by about 10,000, on Friday. Every hiring metric we look at points downward.

Long term I believe the stimulus plan will help, he adds. Lower interest rates will eventually work their magic but I expect more pain, short term.

Why?

Commodity prices are accelerating and it’s causing higher inflation but wages are trending sideways to down because the job market is weakening. So conditions are hard on the consumer.

Bottom line?

We have a massive de-leveraging of the financial markets, says Lavorgna. I expect more pain in financials and that will dictate what happens to the rest of the economy. When the financial sector is broken monetary policy can't hold up. We need to fix the financials before the market can turn.

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