So where's the bottom? Lowry's, the oldest technical analysis service in the United States, put out a long note this morning in which they somewhat sourly concluded, "Our analysis of the forces of Supply and Demand suggests that calls to buy may be premature."
Why? Because the average bear market is a lot worse than this. The average bear market since 1949 has seen the S&P 500 decline 29 percent from its high to its low. The current bear market is down only 18.6 percent from its high (Oct. 2007) to its low (March 10).
Other bear markets have been far more severe:
1973-74: 49.9 percent
2000-02 50.5 percent
1987: 35.9 percent
1994: 8.3 percent
That last one, in 1994, was the shallowest decline in the last 60 years.
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