Has S&P improved ability to weather cyclical risks? David Bianco at UBS and others think so.
I have remarked many times that with many non-financial S&P companies receiving 50 percent and more from overseas, their earnings have remained relatively strong. Non-financial earnings growth in the first quarter is about 10 percent, a typical performance is up 6-8 percent.
One question is how much of the growth was due to currency gains, vs. organic growth. This is tough to figure out, since many companies do not provide the data. S&P itself does not know, but a reasonable guess is it could be 1-2 percent of that 10 percent performance.
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