My friend Barry Ritholtz, author of the excellent Big Picture blog, did a great job last night defending his recession views on Kudlow & Company. The guests were stacked against him, but armed with his good humor and incisive economic analysis, Barry made his case.
It was an impressive performance. Barry has been predicting recession for nearly two years. And while he hasn’t been exactly right, he hasn’t been exactly wrong either.
Incidentally, this morning’s drop in industrial production supports his recession case (even while many other indicators run counter to it). But one thing is certain: Barry’s warnings about rising headline inflation have proven most prescient. In fact, a populist election revolt against high food and gasoline prices is occurring right now.
Mr. Ritholtz is a political moderate--probably a moderate Republican when it gets right down to it. He is a capitalist. He is not a supply-sider. But he is a very smart, good-natured, good guy. For those in the political world, interested in following the hot topics debate in the financial world, you can do no better than reading his Big Picture blog. I read it everyday.