California Economy: Can It Stand Another Work Stoppage?

Another strike?
Another strike?

With the Dow plunging and concerns about employment numbers looming, it makes the potential of another strike--this one from the Screen Actors Guild--scarier.

A new report from the Milken Institute (an economic think tank founded by Michael Milken) shows some pretty grim numbers. Last week, I reported that the writers' strike cost the Los Angeles economy an estimated 3 billion dollars. That number comes from the Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation, (LAEDC) and it includes the effect after the strike ended.

These new numbers really dig into the details--saying the strike resulted in a loss of 37,700 jobs and $2.1 billion in economic output through the end of 2008, tipping California into a recession. (The LAEDC number is 2.1 billion through the end of the strike and another 900k or so in after-effects since then).

The new Milken study says that another strike would prolong recovery from recession until 2010. The report details some of the ripple effects of the writers' strike. Here are some of their estimates for 2008: Wages and salaries are projected to decline by $2.3 billion.

I guess Rodeo Drive will be pretty empty. Retail sales are expected to show a decline of $830 million. Total personal income is expected to drop by $3.0 billion. Yikes. Here's the link to the full report.

Questions? Comments?