Crude’s Summer Vacation

With crude oil driving this stock market it seems every Wednesday’s market action is somewhat of a crap shoot. That’s because every Wednesday the U.S. government releases its weekly petroleum report and lately it’s been full of surprises.

"It’s widely believed that Wednesday’s data will reveal that crude supplies fell by 1.1 million barrels, motor gasoline inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels and distillate supplies were down 900,000 barrels,” according to published estimates.

You’d think that as supplies fall prices would climb but that might not be the case. Some analysts say oil price are likely to remain suppressed amid concerns that we're in the midst of a global economic slowdown.

But don't tell that to CPM Group founder Jeffrey Christian. He's bullish. “I think there’s a good case to make for oil prices being higher in November and December," he says on Fast Money

In fact Christian seems to be quite confident that the price of crude is going to rise. “The major thing that’s happened in the oil market has been the liquidation of long-only technically driven commodity funds. They simply liquidated their positions because the price was falling. When they see the price stabilize and go higher, which we think it will, they’ll come back into the market like gangbusters.”

If you’re looking for a trade Christian has one for you. “I would be buying 2-year oil calls a little bit above the market and I’d hedge my exposure with some puts.”

That’s a very sophisticated trade, Pete Najarian tells viewers. Unless you’re a professional investors I think the better trade is long the Energy Select Sector SPDR .

Or you can short the bejeepers out of the automakers like Toyota, exclaims Jeff Macke.

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Trader disclosure: On Aug 19, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (C), (AGU), (BTU), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Macke Is Short (TM); Macke Owns (MSFT), (WMT), (DIS), (CY); Najarian Owns (AAPL) And Is Short (AAPL) Calls; Najarian Owns (CSCO) Call Spread; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (C) Leap; Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO); Finerman's Firm Is Short (SPG), (COF), (IYR), (IWM), (IJR), (SPY), (MDY), (BBT)