Head Back From the Hamptons

Think because it’s summertime the tradin’ will be easy? Think again! Prepare to be inundated with new information on the economy all week!


Housing will be a dominant theme again on Tuesday after existing home sales ticked modestly higher on Monday. Now all eyes are on the S&P Case-Shiller home price index and new home sales which comes out Tuesday.

“Case Shiller data for June is expected to show annual declines of 16.2% -- a new record,” MKM economist Mike Darda tells Fast Money. “The pace of home price declines may begin to moderate soon, but don’t expect prices to stop falling until we see much more significant reductions in inventories.”


Preliminary real GDP data on Thursday is expected to show second-quarter growth at an annual rate of 2.7 percent, compared with 1.9 percent in the first quarter.

“I think GDP for Q2 should be revised up closer to 3% given strong data on trade and inventories since the initial estimate,” Darda says. “However, with credit markets under intense strain, and leading economic indicators deteriorating, this number is likely to be more of a headfake: growth in the second half should be very weak if there is growth at all.”

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FOMC Minutes

And then there’s always the FOMC minutes which will be released on Tuesday.

“There shouldn’t be any big surprises in the August 5th Fed minutes, although the credit markets have gotten worse since then. The Fed is on hold,” Darda concludes.

Bottom Line: I’d be very cautious in the near term, says Darda. There’s a systemic problem that’s going to take an extended period of time to remedy.

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