We asked our panel: Obama McCain Obama McCain McCain McCain Obama Obama Obama
Who Will Be The Next US President?
Barack Obama 5
John McCain 6
The Kudlow Caucus Breakdown
Stefan AbramsManaging Partner, Bryden-Abrams Investment Management
Obama will win because except in wartime people always vote their pocketbooks, and at this point in time, the average American is feeling put-upon financially. Ergo, they will vote against the party in power.
Market Strategist, Stifel Nicolaus
Senior Economist, Economic Policy Institute
McCain won’t be able to overcome the current economy (yes, GDP was 3.3% in Q2, but the misery index is in double digits, and that matters much more to voters), the lack of middle class gains over the Bush years, and the fact that his economics doubles down on Bushonomics. McCain’s bold and surprising VP pick will help him with the hard right, but is unlikely to help him with the moderates who may well decide this election.
Jerry BowyerChief Economist, Benchmark Financial Network
John vs. Barack; Palin vs. Biden; hero vs. activist; entrepreneurs vs. insiders; makers vs. takers; drill vs. windmill; surge vs. retreat; Purple Heart vs. Grammy; small business vs. too-big-too-fail; tough on Putin vs. moral equivalence; Heartland vs. Hollywood; Billy Graham vs. Jeremiah Wright; Reagan vs. Carter; progress vs. change.
Vince FarrellScotsman Capital Management
McCain, but in a squeaker. Obama is a gifted and inspirational speaker. He should be way ahead in the polls. The fact he is not shows his campaign is in trouble and his message is not resonating. McCain's choice of Palin demonstrates his "independence" from traditional Washington politics.
Jim LaCampPortfolio Manager, Portfolio Focus, RBC Wealth Management
Co-Host, Opening Bell Radio Show, Biz Radio Network
The easy answer would be Obama, since he is ahead in most polls and way ahead on InTrade, but Obama is proving daily that he is about style, lacks substance and it's hard to argue change when Joe Biden is your running mate. Palin is a smart and interesting choice and may draw some that felt Obama spurned Hillary. It's McCain, even though the easy answer would be Obama.
Chief Investment Officer, Laffer Investments
John McCain. In my view, the race will come down to the finish line and be decided on economics pure and simple. And, as it looks to me right now, McCain has the decided edge on economics.
Steve MooreSr. Economics Writer, The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board
Obama in a close race. The Democratic turnout machine will pull Obama over the top.
Sr. Writer, U.S. News & World Report (Money & Business)
Barack Obama has a 60 percent chance of being elected president. How do I know? The betting markets tell me so. But seriously, Obama internal polls, sources tell me, have him ahead by a couple of points going into the convention. None of those folks expected anything other than a tight election. I think it is possible McCain could win the electoral vote and Obama the popular vote. But the Palin veep announcement is a shocker that Team Obama did not expect.
Former Labor Secretary
Professor of Public Policy, UC Berkeley
He’ll make the best the President.
A. Gary Shilling & Co. President
The next US president will be John McCain. In the privacy of the voting booth, many voters will probably be concerned about a young, inexperienced, very liberal black leading the nation.