As talks point towards a potential bailout by 6pET on Sunday, prior to the Asian markets open, what probability of success are the Intrade markets showing? (www.intrade.com)
On its opening day, Tuesday, 9/23, the Intrade bailout contract traded between a 55% and 65% probability that Congress would pass the bill by month end. Wednesday night, the probability rose as high as 95% before settling back down to about a 75% probability on Thursday.
Midday Friday, the Intrade Bailout contract is trading down slightly, at a 69% probability that Congress will pass the bill by month end.