Will the VP Debate benefit Sen. Obama?

The Vice Presidential debate tonight will likely be one of the most watched ever, often eclipsing the buzz of the presidential debates, Intrade has created a contract measuring which presidential candidate will receive more of a bump from tonight's debate (www.intrade.com).

If the contract moves towards 100, and settles at 100, the Intrade markets believe that Sen. Obama's chances at the presidency will improve due to the debate. If the Intrade markets believe that Sen. McCain will benefit more from the VP debates tonight, the contract will settle at zero.

As of Thursday morning, the Intrade markets were indicating a 57% probability that Sen. Obama will likely benefit the most from the VP debate.
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The Senate has already passed the bill, will the House follow? Consensus in the Intrade markets has been strong towards Congress passing the bailout bill by the end of October. The session low has a 72.2% probability versus a high of 95%, according to the Intrade markets.

As of Thursday morning, the contract was trading slightly off its highs, down to an 87% probability that Congress will pass the bailout bill by the end of October, as per the Intrade markets.
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The Dow is currently down over 200 points. Some of the companies weighing on the Dow Jones Industrial Average include:

- General Electric


- American Express

- Caterpillar