Dow Must Top 10,625 to Avoid Big Bear

If the Dow Jones Industrial Average does not close above 10,625 this month, it will be in a multi-year bear market and likely to be closer to the 5,000 level once the recession is over, a strategist told CNBC Monday.

"We've established a trading range (on the Dow Jones Industrial Average), although longer term we are in transition. We need to close above 10,625 this month otherwise we're confirming a multi-year bear market," said Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist at

"If we trade sideways and hold the recent low, which was back on October 10, at 7,884, then I think we can stay in that range for the rest of the year. But a multi-year bear means that we will not see new highs for quite some time and it wouldn't be surprising when we get through this recession, which I think will be longer than a lot of people think, that the Dow would be closer to 5,000 than to 10,000," Suttmeier added.

Suttmeier expects the "extreme" volatility seen in the markets over the last two weeks to die down this week.

Ahead of the big technology companies reporting earnings, Suttmeier rates Texas Instruments a "buy."

Suttmeier told CNBC he would buy Apple shares at around $90 and sell them at around $112 per share.

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