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Intrade Political Futures: Will this election make the Senate Filibuster Proof?

Democrats hope to solidify their thin leadership in the Senate. What do the Intrade markets show as the likelihood of a 60 seat or greater majority for the Dems? (www.intrade.com)

According to the Intrade its prediction markets are showing that most people believe that Democrats will retain at least a 56- 60 seat majority in the Senate, by an 88% probability. However, the Intrade market is less sure that the Dems will retain a "filibuster proof" majority of over 60 seats.


-The Intrade contract predicting that the Democrats will hold 61-65 seats is only trading at a 9% probability.

According to the Intrade its prediction markets are showing that most people believe that Democrats will retain at least a 56- 60 seat majority in the Senate, by an 88% probability. However, the Intrade market is less sure that the Dems will retain a "filibuster proof" majority of over 60 seats.



The Dow is currently up over 2% today in a nice election day rally.
Only three times since 1940 has the Dow been lower from one election day to the next, with today's election day tracking for the 4th occurrence:
• Going from the Nixon Administration to the Carter Administration:
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In 1972, on the day Nixon was elected, the Dow was at 984.80 and the next election when Carter was elected in 1976, the Dow closed at 966.09
*During Nixon's administration the Dow lost 1.9%
• Transitioning from the Carter Administration to the first Reagan Administration:
-In 1976, on the day Carter was elected, the Dow was at 966.09 and the next election when Reagan was elected to his first term in 1980, the Dow closed at 937.20
*During Carter's administration the Dow lost 3%
Transition from Bush W.'s first term to his second term:
-When Bush W was elected for his first term in 2000, the Dow was at 10907.06, and when he was elected for his second term in 2004, the Dow was at 10137.05
*During Bush's administration from 1st term to 2nd term (from election day 2000 - to election day 2004) the Dow lost 7.06%, double the loss during Carter's term
Arguably Bush W. will be the only 2 term president (since 1940) to hand over the White House on election day with the Dow lower each consecutive election day.
-Today, Bush's 3rd election day since he beat Al Gore in 2004, it still fairly safe to say that the Dow will close below 10035.73, though a rally is in progress with the Dow at about 9505.
*Bush is tracking for another loss of about 5.29% for the Dow in his second term.
(The US markets were closed on Election Day until 1980, so Election Day Data prior to 1980 uses the prior day's data.)

Some top performing administrations for the Dow:
-Under the Clinton administration, from Jan, 1993 - Jan, 2001, the Dow gained 226.58%
-Under the Reagan administration, from Jan, 1981 - Jan, 1989, the Dow gained 135.13%
(Source: Dow Jones)

For more information on Intrade political futures and the 2008 presidential election click here.