Get Ready—Same Store Retail Sales Will Be Awful

Hold your nose: tomorrow's October retail same-store sales will be awful. I know everyone thinks the Downer of the Week will be nonfarm payrolls on Friday, but before that brace yourself for double-digit declines in some retail same-store sales.

Last week, analysts finally woke up and began aggressively cutting same store sales. As always, they have been late and the stock market has moved ahead of them.

While discounters will probably post positive comps (with Wal-Martup 1.6 percent), and drug stores should post low single-digit gains, the rest of the retail biz is a mess: there should be notable declines in department stores (with double-digit declines expected at JC Penney, Dillards, Nordstrom, and Saks), Apparel (with most down mid-single digits) and even teen retailers (Abercrombie estimated down 14 percent, for example).

There's even talk that overall year-over-year same store sales could be negative, which would be the first time that has happened since 2000.

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