Traders were slobbering all day about an imminent asset allocation program (out of cash, into stocks), part of the collective wish for that most elusive of 2008 creatures...a Bear Market Rally. And we did indeed end on the highs for the day.
Traders are insisting we are primed for a nice move of, oh, 20 percent or so from the bottom. Never mind the reasons (I detailed a few in my last note).
Uh, sorry guys, you missed it. The S&P 500 has rallied 20 percent since the bottom on Friday. The last time we were up four days in a row...was April.
Is that it? I'm not sure. Is this the bottom? Please. What we know for sure is that bottoms have been confidently declared this year in January, March, July, September, October, and now November. See a pattern?
Better to be skeptical, particularly since companies like Tiffany passed on the opportunity to even provide preliminary earnings guidance for 2009.
On lower mortgage rates. Good news! But we need more. We have:
1) lower mortgage rates (they need to go lower)
2) lower home prices (need to go lower too)
Now several analysts note we need:
1) consumer confidence improvement
2) help with down payment
Can you smell another government program?
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