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Black Friday Blues?

Will new stimulus plans be enough to spark the American consumer back to life? Find out from Stephen Roach, Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.

Roach is worried. Very worried. And on Friday’s Fast Money he said that by his estimates the consumer might be down for the count.

And he’s not just telling us. In an opinion piece penned for the New York Times he said much the same; “it’s game over.”

Well, like any good medical examiner if the patient is dead on arrival we should at least do an autopsy. Roach thinks the thing that will choke the life out of our economy is consumption. “There are only four other instances since 1950 when real consumer demand has fallen two quarters in a row. And this is the first occasion when declines in both quarters have exceeded 3%.”

Eeeeek! Makes you want to slit your wrist right here and now. But put down those razor blades. Roach also sees something positive here too.

“There is a deeper, potentially positive, meaning to all this: Consumers are now abandoning asset-dependent spending.. and moving back to more prudent income-based lifestyles.”

In other words, if you’re living way beyond your means prepare to be splashed in the face with some mighty cold water. “Runaway consumption must now give way to a renewal of saving and investment. That’s the best hope for economic recovery and for America’s longer-term economic prosperity."



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Trader disclosure: On Nov. 28, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders;

Macke Owns (MSFT), (UUP), (GM), (TM), (WMT); Kinahan Owns (CL), (GM), (HD), (JCP), (WFC), (XLF), (YHOO), (AAPL); Dennis Gartman Owns (AAPL); Gartman Owns a Natural Gas Trust; Dennis Gartman Is Short (KSS); Terranova Is Long (DIS)

Terranova Is Co-Portfolio Manager Of The Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO: rtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (IGE), (DBC), (DBV)

Terranova Is Chief Alternatives Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.: Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABD), (ARE), (BIG), (CLB), (DLR), (EPR), (EXR), (MAC), (SLB), (SKT), (UA), (IGE), (DBC), (DBV); Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Seagate Tax Refund Rights; Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Shares Of Essex Property Trust Inc.; Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Shares Of Corporate Office Properties Trust SBI MD

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