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Traders "Betting" Big 3 Get Bailout Money

While most financials are trading up, as are most commodity stocks (gold stocks are up 6 percent or more), there are a couple of outliers trading down.

In financials, Goldman Sachs is trading down 5 percent on a Wall Street Journal report that Goldman could report a loss for the quarter much greater than anticipated ($5.00, vs. expectations of a loss of $0.62) on losses on distressed investments.

In commodity stocks, fertilizer giants Mosaic and Potash both trading down, as Mosaic said fertilizer sales have been soft due to lower grain prices. Mosaic withdrew their sales volume guidance for phosphates and potash.

Elsewhere:

1) GE (our parent) is updating their guidance on GE Capital, and earnings. Earnings are trending toward $0.50-$0.52, the low end of previous guidance of $0.50-$0.65. Reaffirming their plan to maintain their dividend of $1.24 (now has a yield of 8 percent). They are expecting 10 percent earnings growth in the future. For GE Capital, they are lowering their leverage ratio and their commercial paper balance.

2) In consumer products, Palm is trading down as they guided revenues well below expectations for the current quarter and said they were laying off people. Palm was down 21 percent yesterday, down again this morning.

3) How tough is retail? Two companies abandoned parts of their forecasts for 2009, joining many other companies:

a) Sears reported a loss much wider than expected; its EBITDA forecast for the second half is no longer relevant due to "severe conditions in the economy"

b) Staples reported earnings roughly in line with expectations, but is not providing any sales guidance for the fourth quarter due to the volatile environment

4) Lots of debate on trading desks about what plans the Big Three auto makers will present to Congress. One thing's for sure: November vehicle sales due today will be ugly. Estimates are for seasonally adjusted annual sales of about 10.5 million, compared to 16 million in November of last year.

As for the plans, the bet is that emergency aid will be extended, but any restructuring or pre-packaged bankruptcy will wait until later.

Most feel GM will propose eliminating one or more brands, consolidate dealerships, and cut healthcare contributions.

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New from CNBC.com:

- The Dow 30 at a Glance

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CNBC's Names in the News:

General Electric

Bank of America

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