Murky signs: Markets had rallied Wednesday morning on the belief that an auto industry bailout was all but certain. But some GOP legislators — and a skeptical Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) — are opposing the White House deal with congressional Democrats. A top analyst sees financials in critical condition until 2010, but a peer says he's been buying bank stocks and socking them away. And a CNBC guest said commodities are going to lead a 30% to 50% S&P rally.
TARP, Auto Bailout: Break-Even at Best
Bob Andres of Envestnet Asset Management sees the entire TARP allocation being used to shore up the financial firms, just to "get us back to the starting line" — not to revive the economy. He believes TARP won't create jobs or improve productivity. David Sowerby, chief market analyst at Loomis Sayles, is no fan of "corporate food stamps," but says the potential spillover danger from an auto bankruptcy demands the bailout.
Banks 'On Life Support' For 18 More Months...At Least
Oppenheimer bank analyst Meredith Whitney sees no economic growth for at least the next year and a half, because the financial companies that "lubricate" the economy are still just plugging holes. The next trauma in the financial crisis? The pulling of up to $2 trillion in consumer credit lines, potentially devastating for the 70 percent of U.S. households using credit cards as "cash flow management vehicles."
Coming Rally: Who's in the Roller Coaster's Front Car?
Mike Holland of Holland & Co. said securities across the board have been sold to levels where he's begun buying. He added to some bank stock holdings during the last week, and he hasn't sold anything over the last few months. Peter Boockvar of Miller Tabak said that from the 740 low in the S&P 500, there could be a rally of 30 to 50 percent — but it's going to be led by hard assets and commodities.
He's Putting His Chips on China
Dave Rovelli of Canaccord Adams said stocks are rallying off bad news, an encouraging sign, but he's scared of the housing and financial sectors. He urged investors to wait for a pullback. He's keeping his eye on China, the only major market that has broken out of the downtrend and is moving higher again.
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