Currency Trading Update

Since December 18, the same contestant has remained the frontrunner in the currency trading portion of the Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge. This contestant has done very well trading EUR/USD, and he is comfortably ahead of the rest of the contestants in the top 5 by a margin of $136,000 - $163,000. As it stands, contestant number 1's status in the rankings depends on where EUR/USD goes from here, as he is holding three large long positions with entry prices near 1.3965/75.

Looking ahead, there's limited event risk on hand for the forex markets during the next 24 hours:

Asian Trading Session
*No indicators due to be released.

European Trading Session
*No indicators due to be released.

US Trading Session
12/30, 10:00 ET
US Consumer Confidence (DEC) - The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for the month of December is expected to edge up to 45.5 from 44.9. This would mark the second improvement in a row, but it’s necessary to keep these figures in perspective, as the record low of 38.8 going back to 1967 was just realized in October, which is down significantly from the index’s average of more than 100 throughout 2006 and 2007. Indeed, the outlook for consumption remains bleak, especially as aggressive discounting by retailers was unable to prevent holiday spending from slumping 4 percent in December from a year earlier (excluding gasoline), according to SpendingPulse. Nevertheless, a surprisingly strong reading could boost the US dollar, while a disappointing result would only extend the currency's decline.

Terri Belkas
Currency Strategist
Forex Capital Markets LLC

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