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Retail’s Long-Term Trends

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Still nursing that New Year's hangover? Well your throbbing headache is nothing compared to Wall Street's morning after.

Oh, it was quite a bash. In fact it lasted about 5 years. So it should come as no surprise that it’s probably going to take another 12 months to work off!

That’s right forget 2009. It's time to focus on 2010.

Fast Money trader Jeff Macke is doing just that. He’s got his eye on the sector that wore the lampshade to the credit party: retail.

Typically Christmas is the most wonderful time of year for this sector. But it looks like this past shopping season will go down in history as the least profitable since at least 1970.

Ontop of that, Americans are pinching their pennies and chopping up their credit cards in record numbers.

None of that bodes well for a retail in 2009. In fact, it probably means more bankruptcies and store closings. But after 2009 is done the surviving stores may be sitting pretty.

“The survivors will be Wal-Mart and Target,” exclaims Jeff Macke. And I’m leery of Macy’s and every other retailer that has a lot of debt on their balance sheet. The party in retail -- is over!”

So throw out 2009, these are Macke’s trades for when the ball drops in 2010.


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Trader disclosure: On Jan 2, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders:Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE): Macke Owns (MCD), (WMT), (TM), (DIS): Kinahan Owns (DELL), (GE), (HD), (HPQ), (INTC), (LEHMQ), (C ), (YHOO): Kinahan Is Short (BAC) Puts, (CSCO) Puts, (MSFT) Puts

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