Don’t think the market hangs in the balance, waiting for Congress to pass President-Elect Barack Obama’s proposed stimulus plan. No, a commodities rally Monday, Cramer said, is proof we will not suffer another Great Depression.
Similar rallies throughout 2008 – in coal, oil, the fertilizers or infrastructure – were largely inflationary or levered to China, so they could never lend any long-term strength to the market. But today’s move, despite the Dow dropping 81 points, showed honest signs of life in the economy.
Freeport-McMoRan and the coppers moved higher, as did coals like Peabody Energy, shippers like Nordic American Tanker and fertilizers like Terra Nitrogen. And that doesn’t happen, Cramer said, if the economy isn’t behind the move. So forget ’32. The worst we’re in for at this point is a severe slowdown, Cramer said, and not the Great Depression Part 2.
He was quick to point out that he’s not necessarily recommending any of these stocks right now. They could all take a hit come Friday when we, most likely, get another depressing employment number. But the commodities rally could be a sign that the worst of this downturn is over.
The strategy stays the same, though, as we ride out the rest of this storm out. Buy stocks only when they pull back in price, Cramer said, and look for accidentally high yielders. These are the stocks whose share prices have dropped so much they’re suddenly offering better percentage dividends. Scale into them on the way down, and scale out as they climb back up.
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