The first issue is easily resolved. The jet fuel price chart has all the characteristics of a parabolic trend. Although jet fuel does not exactly follow NYMEX oil , there is a close relationship.
At commodity conferences in early 2008, in commentary on CNBC's Asia Squawk Box, and in CNBC.com chart notes, I've highlighted the parabolic trend and its highly probable outcome -- a sudden and dramatic collapse in prices. The parabolic trend analysis is one of the few technical analysis methods that helps construct an end date for the trend.
The second issue is a little more difficult. This is because the available price data can only be displayed as a line chart. This is the least effective chart display for classic charting analysis as it does not reveal the full range of psychological factors at play in pricing. A chart that shows open, high, low and close helps to identify the psychological behavior of the market and establish reliable support, resistance and trend lines.
The long-term support level is near $48. The long term resistance level is near $63. This combination of support and resistance creates a trading band. The current price activity is a temporary consolidation inside the trading band.
The pattern of behavior shows a down sloping triangle. This is a bearish chart pattern. A downside breakout from this pattern sets a downside target near $45. The higher probability outcome is a fall to the long-term support level near $48 with perhaps a temporary spike towards $45.
The bearish pattern also limits the upside. A bullish breakout has a pattern target near $65 to $66. The target follows the slope of the triangle trend line, so the target continues to fall as the triangle pattern develops. There is a high probability the historical resistance near $63 will cap any immediate breakout.