It’s no secret that this financial crisis has cut a broad swathe of job destruction through the economy. But will Friday's number move the market or is it priced in?
Economists expect Friday's payrolls report, to show the economy shed 648,000 jobs in February alone, which would be the biggest monthly decline since 1949.
The unemployment rate is expected to have risen to 7.9 percent in February, which would be its highest in 25 years, when the economy was just pulling out of the deep recession of the early 1980s.
It’s going to be bad, there’s no question about that -- but investors want to know how much of it is already priced in?
According to Joseph LaVorgna don’t expect big market moves on the numbers. “The market probably has the declines already built in,” counsels the Deutsche Bank chief US economist on Fast Money. And that’s in both the stock market and the bond market.
And he does have a glimmer of good news for the market going forward. LaVorgna speculates that we could be near a bottom, at least somewhat. “If you look back at the 1974-75 or 1981-82 cycle -- equities bottomed in the quarter in which GDP was the worst or the quarter there after,” he says. If that holds true, the bottom could be around June.
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Trader disclosure: On Mar. 5th, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Macke Owns (GE) Puts; Macke Owns (MS), (SDS), (AAPL), (MOS); Najarian Owns (GDX), Najarian Owns (MS) & (MS) Calls, Najarian Owns (MSFT) & (MSFT) Call; Najarian Owns (X) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (V) & (V) Calls; Najarian Owns (WFC) & (WFC) Calls; Najarian Owns (DNA) Calls; Najarian Owns (DOW) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (FCX) Spread; Najarian Owns (GLD) Put Spread; Najarian Owns (GE) Puts; Najarian Owns (PNC) Put Spread; Finerman's Firm Owns (DNA) & (DNA) Calls; Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (WFC) Preferred; Finerman Owns (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (PLCE), (MSFT), (PBR), (RIG), (TGT): Finerman's Firm Is Short (BAC), (BBT), (IYR), (IJR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY), (USO)
