Strategy Session with the Fast Money Traders
A lot of people are calling bottoms, says Guy Adami. But I still don’t think we’re there, yet. It has to feel like the end of the world before the market can bottom.
The data that I’d watch to signal a bottom is the rate of decline slowing, adds Karen Finerman. But I don’t see that, yet.
We won’t be at the bottom until the financials participate in the market’s broader moves, adds Pete Najarian.
I don’t think we’ll get a bottom until we get policy going forward that doesn’t seem like it’s just attacking Wall Street, adds Jon Najarian. (Pete’s brother)
You know why we rallied into the close, adds Pete Najarian. People didn’t want to be short going into the week-end.
BANK STOCKS HIT CRISIS LOW
Investors slammed the financials again this week sending the sector to new lows. JPMorgan and Bank Of America both closed lower while Citigroup fights to stay above $1/ share. On a somewhat brighter note shares of General Electric closed in positive territory after a Bernstein analyst said big write-offs are unlikely.
In the space, keep an eye on PNC Financials, counsels Guy Adami. I think it could move significantly higher.
VIETNAM SAFER THAN WARREN BUFFETT?
As Fast Money producer John Melloy first told you in his blog, Berkshire Hathaway credit default swaps are now trading wider than Vietnam, according to Bank of America/Merrill strategist Michael Hartnett.
In other words Berkshire bondholders need to pay more to protect themselves against default than those holding sovereign debt issued by Vietnam.
Hartnett holds this up as just one example of the extremes he's seeing in the credit markets. He also shows that GE CDS are trading wider than Russia.
That’s pretty bad, says Karen Finerman. It speaks to how skeptical the market is right now.
Although these statistics show the market has reached an extreme, investors still aren’t willing to put money to work, explains Pete Najarian. We’re not at capitulation levels yet.
TOPPING THE TAPE: COMMODITIES
Oil rose more than 4 percent to over $45 a barrel on Friday as expectations that OPEC could reduce output again outweighed weak economic data.
If you want to get into the energy space I’d look at ConocoPhillips, says Guy Adami. It’s valuation is cheaper than Exxon .
If you're looking for a play in copper, I’d keep an eye on Vedanta Resources , adds Pete Najarian.
TOPPING THE TAPE: BIOTECH CHARGES HIGHER
On Friday word came that Roche increased its bid to $93 a share from $86.50 for the portion of Genentech it does not already own.
The sweetened offer takes the cost of the deal to $45.7 billion. All other terms and conditions remain unchanged, the Swiss drugmaker said in a statement on Friday.
From here the party is mostly over in this stock, says Karen Finerman.
But maybe this deal sows the seeds for more M&A going forward, muses Jon Najarian. Afterall, they got the credit they needed.
TRADE SCHOOL: VIX LOST ITS TOUCH?
Despite the markets falling to 1996 lows, the Vix has remained muted. Why isn’t the Vix reflecting the latest market turmoil?
We’ve had three days above 50 this week, explains Pete Najarian. It suggests to me we could be near capitulation.
FAST FLASH: AMEX TO BREAK $10?
American Express almost closed below $10 for first time since 1995.
I think the TALF offers some help for this company, muses Karen Finerman. At these levels it looks interesting.
Visa broke levels that had been support, adds Pete Najarian. I’d make sure to own puts if you’re in this stock.
FAST FLASH: ALCOA TO BREAK $5 NEXT WEEK?
Global bellwether Alcoa seems to be nearing a tipping point with shares at risk of breaking $5 next week
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Trader disclosure: On Mar. 6th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Najarian Owns (GDX); Najarian Owns (DNA) Calls; Najarian Owns (FCX) Spread; Najarian Owns (GLD) Put Spread; Najarian Owns (MS) & (MS) Calls; Najarian Owns (MSFT) & (MSFT) Calls; Najarian Owns (PNC) Put Spread; Najarian Owns (X) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (V) & (V) Calls; Najarian Owns (WFC) & (WFC) Calls; Finerman Owns (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (DNA) & (DNA) Calls; Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (PBR), (RIG), (TGT); Finerman's Firm Is Short (VNO), (BAC), (BBT), (IYR), (IJR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY), (USO); J. Najarian Owns (AA), (FDO), (M); J. Najarian Owns (MS) & (MS) Puts; J. Najarian Owns (BAC) Preferred; J. Najarian Owns (FAS)
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