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Take Your Position: Disney

With Disney due to report earnings next week, what should you expect?

Disney can be a tough company to anticipate. You never know what kind of magic CEO Bob Iger may have up his sleeve.

The villain of this story will likely be ad sales. UBS is predicting that Disney, will continue to see declines in advertising revenue in its fiscal second quarter, in line with the rest of its competitors.

UBS entertainment analyst Mike Morris is forecasting a 12% decline in advertising revenue at ABC, though notes that the rates of decline are slowing.

And he's expecting a 30% decline in ad sales at the local stations and a 12% decline at ESPN, which has been hit by a drop in ad spending in typically male categories such as autos and financial.

Ominous, no doubt, but those forecasts don’t preclude a happy ending.

The film industry is thriving despite the economic downturn and “Up,” the latest film by Walt Disney and Pixar Animation Studios, is generating positive buzz ahead of its opening in theaters later this month.

Also Disney’s Jonas Brothers and Hannah Montana are still huge draws.

And though theme parks are struggling with the economy, it seems as if the swine flu will have little impact.

Considering Disney reports earnings on Tuesday, May 5, what’s should you expect?

I’m expecting to hear Disney had a tough quarter but I’m a buyer of the stock over the long term says UBS entertainment analyst Michael Morris. Disney is a high quality name that’s been beaten down.

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Trader disclosure: On May 1st, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (FXI), (PBR), (DRYS); Finerman Owns (MA); Finerman's Firm Owns (AXP), (PBR), (RIG), (UNH), (TBT), (KFN), (ADP), (XPI), (IBB), (CSCO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (TBT); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred; (C) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT) & (MSFT) Put Spread; Finermans Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (USO); Terranova Owns (IBM), (MS), (BP), (XOM), (HES), (X)

Terranova Owns (DIS) Calls; Terranova Owns (JPM) & (JPM) Calls; Terranova Owns (JOYG) & (JOYG) Calls; Terranova Owns (INTC) & (INTC) Calls; Terranova Owns (BRCM) & (BRCM) Calls; Terranova Owns (WYNN) And Is Short (WYNN) Calls

Terranova Works For (VRTS); Terranova Is Chief Alternatives Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.; Terranova Is Co-Portfolio Manager Of The Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO

Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (IGE), (DBC), (DBV)

Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABD),(ARE), (CAL), (DLR), (EPR), (EXR), (IGE), (MEE), (DBC), (DBV), (DBA), (SKT), (UA), (CLB), (WBMD); Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of St Mary Land & Exploration Co; Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Seagate Tax Refund Rights; Terranova Owns June Crude Oil And Is Short September Crude Oil

UBS Securities LLC has received compensation from (MOT), (AAPL) In Past 12 Months

UBS Securities LLC Is Or In Past 12 Months Has Been A Client Of UBS Securities LLC (Investment Banking Services, Non-Investment Banking Securities-Related Services, Non-Securities Services)

(AAPL) Is Or In Past 12 Months Has Been A Client Of UBS Securities LLC (Non-Securities Services)