UPDATE: Take Your Position, Disney

You've only got one day left to trade Disney ahead of earnings. What's the play?

Disney can be a tough company to game. You never know what kind of magic CEO Bob Iger may have up his sleeve.

UBS entertainment analyst Mike Morris is predicting that Disney, will continue to see declines in advertising revenue in its fiscal second quarter, but in line with the rest of its competitors.

Cowen & Co. analyst Doug Creutz is also cautious. He's trimming his fiscal year outlook on the company due to a weakening advertising market, but left his second-quarter forecast in place.

And analyst Rich Greenfield of Pali Media tells Fast Money he thinks Disney will have nothing positive to say.

In case you're wondering, analysts, on average, expect Disney to post a 30 percent decline in earnings per share to 40 cents, with revenue down 6 percent to $8.15 billion.

Ominous, no doubt, but those forecasts don’t preclude a happy ending.

The film industry is thriving despite the economic downturn, with “Up,” the latest film by Walt Disney and Pixar Animation Studios, generating positive buzz ahead of its opening at the Cannes Film Festival in France on May 13 and then here in the US on May 29.

Also Disney’s Jonas Brothers and Hannah Montana are still huge draws. And though theme parks are struggling with the economy, it seems as if the swine flu will have little impact.

What's the trade?

I’m looking for earnings to come down, says Rich Greenfield of Pali Media. I think the stock is going to retrace to its prior lows over the course of the next 6-9 months.

I wouldn't jump in today, muses Pete Najarian. But if it gets toward $21 I say it's a buy.

I'm longDisney, counters Joe Terranova, and I'm not getting out. Longer term I suspect Disney's got a $30 price target on it. However if you're not in already, I'd wait for a pullback.


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