When The News Drops Off

It's often been said that rallies can just as easily die on light volume as they can on heavy volume, and today is a good example of the former.

We opened down, but we have moved in a very narrow trading range all day; volatility (VIX) spiked at the open but quickly died and remains in the low 30s, near the lowest level since September.

The problem? We noted at the close on Friday that with the stress test and earnings over, and nonfarm payrolls out, the market was heading into a few days of lighter news flow.

Still, what news there is, is good.

Banks are successfully re-capitalizing; if you're disappointed that BB&T, Capital One, KeyBanc, and US Bancorp (all who announced secondaries today) are down, consider the dilution that would have occurred had they had to raise money two months ago, when their stocks were HALF the price they are now.


Commodities look like they want to pause as well.

Oil bottomed around $33 in February, but closed Friday at $58, a nearly 100 percent move. But oil analyst Bruce Lanni wrote to me this morning to say he thought oil was due for a 10 percent correction, as well as in oil and natural gas stocks, noting that "the run up has not been demand driven and that the supply overhang (taking into consideration OPEC's spare capacity and current inventories) will take years to work off."



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