But even as the NABE forecasters believe the country will emerge from recession later this year, they also predict the economy's overall performance in 2009 will be rotten.
The economy should contract by 2.8 percent this year, the forecasters said in updated projections. That's worse than the 1.9 percent drop they forecast in late February. If they are right, it would mark the worst annual contraction since 1946, when economic activity fell by 11 percent.
Still, the forecasters believe the worst is already behind the country in terms of lost economic activity.
What’s the trade?
We won’t know the recession is over – until it’s long over, explains Zach Karabell of RiverTwice. Don’t wait for the NABE to call it; that will be too late.
Summer should be a good time to get into stocks. I think we have a summer lull between 7700 and 8500 in the Dow, he counsels. If and when that happens, I think it’s a good time to establish some long positions. Look at capital goods stocks such as UnitedTechnologies and Manitowoc .
And in case you're wondering, Karabell is putting his money where his mouth is. He's long both names.
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Trader disclosure: On May 27th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Terranova Owns (ABT), (TER), (XBI), (RIMM), (IBM); Terranova Is Short (XOM) Call Spread; Terranova Owns (DIS) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (ISIS); Najarian Owns (AMAT) Calls; Najarian Owns (BX) Call Spread, (INTC) Call Spread, (MOS) Call Spread, (XHB) Call Spread, (XLB) Call Spread, (XLU) Call Spread; Grasso Owns (V), (XLF), (RIMM), (AMZN); Grasso's Firm Owns (MSFT); Grasso's Clients Owns (JPM), (OXY), (AMR), (V)
Zach Karabell Owns Manitowoc (MTW)
Zach Karabell Owns United Technologies (UTX)