If you’re a bull who’s waiting for the next leg higher you might be relieved by Thursday’s market action.
Not only did the Dow record triple digit gains but the Vix is down and the latest string of Treasury auctions were received rather well.
All that seems rather supportive of the bull case.
But storm clouds may lie ahead. Technical analyst John Roque has spotted some ominous patterns in the charts.
Specifically he’s looking at an amalgamation of Monsanto (MON), Mosaic (MOS), Freeport McMoRan(FCX), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) & Copper – something he calls his bellwether index.
There are four commodity stocks in Roque's index because "if there is going to be leadership it should come out of the basic materials sector," Roque explains. "And we also chose two financials because we think Morgan and Goldman will be leaders in a financial revival," he adds.
In other words Roque considers these securities ‘tells’ for the economy.
Now here's the bad part. Roque says this index peaked a month ago and has deteriorated ever since. And the trend lines suggest further weakness.
The biggest trouble makers are Monsanto and Mosaic, he explains. "They've been really weakening of late."